A framework for considering uncertainty in quantitative Life Cycle cost estimation

Yee Mey Goh, Linda Newnes, Christopher McMahon, Antony Mileham, Christiaan Paredis

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is important information that is useful for decision making affecting complex engineering systems with extended life. Uncertainty in the estimation of LCC, especially in the early concept and definition stage, has great influence on the robustness of such decisions. Conventionally, Verification and Validation (V&V) of cost estimates is not performed, either due to economic or practical constraints. This paper presents a framework for considering uncertainties in quantitative life cycle cost estimation, focusing on the aspects that are important for understanding the discrepancies between the estimated and actual costs. Built on experience in verification and validation in engineering, the framework will be used to guide further research in this topic, where emphasis on suitable theories and models of different types of uncertainties in the estimation as well as strategies to deal with them effectively to improve decision making involving LCC will be discussed.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the ASME International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference 2009, DETC2009
Place of PublicationNew York
PublisherASME
Pages3-13
Number of pages11
Volume8
ISBN (Print)9780791849057
Publication statusPublished - 2010
EventInternational Design Engineering Technical Conferences & Computers and Information in Engineering Design - San Diego, USA United States
Duration: 30 Aug 20092 Sep 2009

Conference

ConferenceInternational Design Engineering Technical Conferences & Computers and Information in Engineering Design
CountryUSA United States
CitySan Diego
Period30/08/092/09/09

Fingerprint

Life cycle
Costs
Decision making
Systems engineering
Uncertainty
Economics

Cite this

Goh, Y. M., Newnes, L., McMahon, C., Mileham, A., & Paredis, C. (2010). A framework for considering uncertainty in quantitative Life Cycle cost estimation. In Proceedings of the ASME International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference 2009, DETC2009 (Vol. 8, pp. 3-13). New York: ASME.

A framework for considering uncertainty in quantitative Life Cycle cost estimation. / Goh, Yee Mey; Newnes, Linda; McMahon, Christopher; Mileham, Antony; Paredis, Christiaan.

Proceedings of the ASME International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference 2009, DETC2009. Vol. 8 New York : ASME, 2010. p. 3-13.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Goh, YM, Newnes, L, McMahon, C, Mileham, A & Paredis, C 2010, A framework for considering uncertainty in quantitative Life Cycle cost estimation. in Proceedings of the ASME International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference 2009, DETC2009. vol. 8, ASME, New York, pp. 3-13, International Design Engineering Technical Conferences & Computers and Information in Engineering Design, San Diego, USA United States, 30/08/09.
Goh YM, Newnes L, McMahon C, Mileham A, Paredis C. A framework for considering uncertainty in quantitative Life Cycle cost estimation. In Proceedings of the ASME International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference 2009, DETC2009. Vol. 8. New York: ASME. 2010. p. 3-13
Goh, Yee Mey ; Newnes, Linda ; McMahon, Christopher ; Mileham, Antony ; Paredis, Christiaan. / A framework for considering uncertainty in quantitative Life Cycle cost estimation. Proceedings of the ASME International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference 2009, DETC2009. Vol. 8 New York : ASME, 2010. pp. 3-13
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