Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is important information that is useful for decision making affecting complex engineering systems with extended life. Uncertainty in the estimation of LCC, especially in the early concept and definition stage, has great influence on the robustness of such decisions. Conventionally, Verification and Validation (V&V) of cost estimates is not performed, either due to economic or practical constraints. This paper presents a framework for considering uncertainties in quantitative life cycle cost estimation, focusing on the aspects that are important for understanding the discrepancies between the estimated and actual costs. Built on experience in verification and validation in engineering, the framework will be used to guide further research in this topic, where emphasis on suitable theories and models of different types of uncertainties in the estimation as well as strategies to deal with them effectively to improve decision making involving LCC will be discussed.
|Title of host publication||Proceedings of the ASME International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference 2009, DETC2009|
|Place of Publication||New York|
|Number of pages||11|
|Publication status||Published - 2010|
|Event||International Design Engineering Technical Conferences & Computers and Information in Engineering Design - San Diego, USA United States|
Duration: 30 Aug 2009 → 2 Sep 2009
|Conference||International Design Engineering Technical Conferences & Computers and Information in Engineering Design|
|Country||USA United States|
|Period||30/08/09 → 2/09/09|
Goh, Y. M., Newnes, L., McMahon, C., Mileham, A., & Paredis, C. (2010). A framework for considering uncertainty in quantitative Life Cycle cost estimation. In Proceedings of the ASME International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference 2009, DETC2009 (Vol. 8, pp. 3-13). New York: ASME.