A comparison of future weather created from morphed observed weather and created by a weather generator

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Abstract

To allow building scientists and engineers to investigate how their building designs fare in future climates there is the need for future weather files on an hourly timescale, which are representative of possible future climates. With the publication of the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) such data can be created for future years up to the end of the 21st century and for various predictions of climate change by one of two methods: mathematical transformations of observed weather (morphing), or the use of a synthetic weather generator. Here current and future weather is created by both of these methods for three locations within the UK and their statistical signatures discussed. Although the potential to use both products to investigate the effects of climate change is clear, it is found that the use of UKCP09 climate change anomalies within the morphing procedure give an unrealistic representations of future temperatures both mathematically and physically, limiting its use.
LanguageEnglish
Pages252-264
Number of pages13
JournalBuilding and Environment
Volume56
DOIs
StatusPublished - Oct 2012

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Climate change
weather
climate change
climate
architectural design
twenty first century
Mathematical transformations
numerical method
mathematical method
Engineers
timescale
anomaly
projection
comparison
engineer
pricing
prediction
Temperature
temperature

Cite this

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title = "A comparison of future weather created from morphed observed weather and created by a weather generator",
abstract = "To allow building scientists and engineers to investigate how their building designs fare in future climates there is the need for future weather files on an hourly timescale, which are representative of possible future climates. With the publication of the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) such data can be created for future years up to the end of the 21st century and for various predictions of climate change by one of two methods: mathematical transformations of observed weather (morphing), or the use of a synthetic weather generator. Here current and future weather is created by both of these methods for three locations within the UK and their statistical signatures discussed. Although the potential to use both products to investigate the effects of climate change is clear, it is found that the use of UKCP09 climate change anomalies within the morphing procedure give an unrealistic representations of future temperatures both mathematically and physically, limiting its use.",
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