This project builds upon the initial work carried out at a three day Agri-Food industry study group with Innovate UK in January 2017. In attending this study group, Mondelez hoped to find new ways to model the variation in on-farm cocoa yields resulting from weather effects. This could significantly aid sustainable development of resilient farming communities. To support this project, Mondelez provided expertise and advice on selecting the key drivers of cocoa yield, as well as data on yield and weather in Ghana.
An initial DDE model is proposed, and the results of the model output is compared to the yield data for various statistically selected rainfall inputs. The results are promising, as the model output captures the variation in shape of the cumulative yield curve due to different rainfall patterns. It is also able to capture the increased yield due to fertiliser application.