Paul Goodwin

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20012019
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Research Output 2001 2019

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Article
2019

Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst- and best-case scenarios

Goodwin, P., Gönül, M. S., Önkal, D., Kocabıyıkoğlu, A. & Göğüş, I., 1 Dec 2019, In : Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. 32, 5, p. 536-549 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects

Fildes, R., Goodwin, P. & Önkal, D., 1 Jan 2019, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 35, 1, p. 144-156 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Supply chain
Discounting
Forecasting support system
Operations planning
Experiment

When providing optimistic and pessimistic scenarios can be detrimental to judgmental demand forecasts and production decisions

Goodwin, P., Gönül, M. S. & Önkal, D., 16 Mar 2019, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 273, 3, p. 992-1004 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Forecast
Time series
Scenarios
Availability
Congruent
2018
9 Downloads (Pure)

What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk

Goodwin, P., Onkal, D. & Stekler, H. O., 1 Apr 2018, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 266, 1, p. 238-246 9 p., EOR_14705.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
Bayes' Formula
Prior Probability
Discrepancy
Likely
Economics
2017
112 Downloads (Pure)

A note on upper bounds for forecast-value-added relative to naive forecasts

Goodwin, P., Petropoulos, F. & Hyndman, R. J., Sep 2017, In : Journal of the Operational Research Society. 68, 9, p. 1082-1084

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
Value engineering
Costs
Upper bound
Value added
Forecasting method
5 Citations (Scopus)

Evaluating expert advice in forecasting: users’ reactions to presumed vs experienced credibility

Önkal, D., Gönül, M. S., Goodwin, P., Thomson, M. & Öz, E., Jan 2017, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 33, 1, p. 280-297

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Credibility
Weighting
Advisors
Experiment
Knowledge elicitation
2 Citations (Scopus)
54 Downloads (Pure)

The influence of product involvement and emotion on short term product demand forecasting

Belvedere, V. & Goodwin, P., 22 Apr 2017, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 33, 3, p. 652-661

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
Product involvement
Emotion
Demand forecasting
Product category
Leather
5 Citations (Scopus)
84 Downloads (Pure)
Open Access
File
Extrapolation
Forecast error
Performance feedback
Inefficiency
Experiment
7 Citations (Scopus)
102 Downloads (Pure)

When do changes in consumer preferences make forecasts from choice-based conjoint models unreliable?

Meeran, S., Jahanbin, S., Goodwin, P. & Quariguasi Frota Neto, J., 16 Apr 2017, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 258, 2, p. 512-524 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
Forecast
Sales
Life cycle
Model
Life Cycle
2016
11 Citations (Scopus)
80 Downloads (Pure)

A decision-analysis-based framework for analyzing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning

Cairns, G., Goodwin, P. & Wright, G., 16 Mar 2016, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 249, 3, p. 1050-1062

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
Decision Analysis
Decision theory
Planning
Unfolding
Scenarios
102 Downloads (Pure)
Open Access
File
Forecast performance
Discount
Prediction
Anchoring
Heuristics
18 Citations (Scopus)
65 Downloads (Pure)

Do 'big losses' in judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts affect experts' behaviour

Petropoulos, F., Fildes, R. & Goodwin, P., 16 Mar 2016, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 249, 3, p. 842-852 11 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
Forecast
Adjustment
Forecasting
Pharmaceuticals
Sports
2015

Corrigendum to Accuracy and bias of experts' adjusted forecasts [Ann. Tourism Res., 48, (2014), 156-174]

Lin, V. S., Goodwin, P. & Song, H., 1 Nov 2015, In : Annals of Tourism Research. 55, p. 194 1 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)
89 Downloads (Pure)

Is a more liberal approach to conservatism needed in forecasting?

Goodwin, P., Aug 2015, In : Journal of Business Research. 68, 8, p. 1753-1754

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
Conservatism
Golden rule
Probability forecasts
Interval forecasts
Check list
17 Citations (Scopus)
31 Downloads (Pure)

Reproducability in forecasting research

Boylan, J. E., Goodwin, P., Mohammadipour, M. & Syntetos, A., Mar 2015, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 31, 1, p. 79-90 12 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

File
Forecasting method
Discrepancy
Replication
Decomposition
Documentation
5 Citations (Scopus)
99 Downloads (Pure)
Open Access
File
Probability forecasts
Cognitive load
Heuristics
Gambles
Bayes' theorem
2014
10 Citations (Scopus)
121 Downloads (Pure)

Accuracy and bias of experts' adjusted forecasts

Lin, V. S., Goodwin, P. & Song, H., 1 Sep 2014, In : Annals of Tourism Research. 48, p. 156-174 19 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
expert
statistical test
trend
econometrics
regression analysis
14 Citations (Scopus)
144 Downloads (Pure)

The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products

Goodwin, P., Meeran, S. & Dyussekeneva, K., 1 Oct 2014, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 30, 4, p. 1082–1097 16 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
Durables
Formal model
Product launch
Diffusion process
Research agenda
2013
11 Citations (Scopus)
102 Downloads (Pure)

Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice

Goodwin, P., Sinan Gönül, M. & Önkal, D., Apr 2013, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 29, 2, p. 354-366 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
Forecasting support system
Calibration
Interval forecasts
Experiment
Prediction interval
14 Citations (Scopus)
128 Downloads (Pure)

The use of analogies in forecasting the annual sales of new electronics products

Goodwin, P., Dyussekeneva, K. & Meeran, S., Oct 2013, In : IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 24, 4, p. 407-422 16 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
Annual
Analogy
Forecasting
Sales
Electronic equipment
2012
32 Citations (Scopus)
93 Downloads (Pure)

Approaches to displaying information to assist decisions under uncertainty

Kreye, M. E., Goh, Y. M., Newnes, L. B. & Goodwin, P., Dec 2012, In : Omega-International Journal of Management Science. 40, 6, p. 682-692 11 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
Decision under uncertainty
Uncertainty
Costs
Diagrams
Decision maker
2011
18 Citations (Scopus)
95 Downloads (Pure)

Restrictiveness and guidance in support systems

Goodwin, P., Fildes, R., Lawrence, M. & Stephens, G., Jun 2011, In : Omega-International Journal of Management Science. 39, 3, p. 242-253 12 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

File
Guidance
Damage
Experiment
Demand forecasting
26 Citations (Scopus)

Do forecasts expressed as prediction intervals improve production planning decisions?

Goodwin, P., Onkal, D. & Thomson, M., 16 Aug 2010, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 205, 1, p. 195-201 7 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Prediction Interval
Production Planning
Forecast
Planning
Heuristics
90 Citations (Scopus)

The limits of forecasting methods in anticipating rare events

Goodwin, P. & Wright, G., Mar 2010, In : Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 77, 3, p. 355-368 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2009
5 Citations (Scopus)

Common sense and hard decision analysis: why might they conflict?

Goodwin, P., 2009, In : Management Decision. 47, 3, p. 427-440 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Common sense
Decision analysis
Decision making
Managers
Decision model
116 Citations (Scopus)

Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method

Wright, G. & Goodwin, P., Oct 2009, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 25, 4, p. 813-825 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Scenario planning
Predictability
Planning
Decision making
Scenario method
169 Citations (Scopus)

Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: An empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning

Fildes, R., Goodwin, P., Lawrence, M. & Nikolopoulos, K., Jan 2009, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 25, 1, p. 3-23 21 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Empirical evaluation
Supply chain planning
Supply chain
Demand forecasting
Optimism
19 Citations (Scopus)

Expectations, use and judgmental adjustment of external financial and economic forecasts: an empirical investigation

Gonul, S., Onkal, D. & Goodwin, P., Jan 2009, In : Journal of Forecasting. 28, 1, p. 19-37 19 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Forecast
Adjustment
Acoustic waves
Economics
Feedback

Reply to Commentaries by Flores, Önkal and Sanders

Fildes, R., Goodwin, P., Lawrence, M. & Nikolopoulos, K., Jan 2009, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 25, 1, p. 32-34 3 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

39 Citations (Scopus)

Teaching scenario planning: lessons from practice in academe and business

Wright, G., Cairns, G. & Goodwin, P., 1 Apr 2009, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 194, 1, p. 323-335 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Teaching
Planning
Scenarios
Industry
Formal methods
71 Citations (Scopus)

The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts

Syntetos, A. A., Nikolopoulos, K., Boylan, J. E., Fildes, R. & Goodwin, P., Mar 2009, In : International Journal of Production Economics. 118, 1, p. 72-81 10 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Inventory control
Sales
Industry
Drug products
Marketing
48 Citations (Scopus)

The relative influence of advice from human experts and statistical methods on forecast adjustments

Onkal, D., Goodwin, P., Thomson, M., Gonul, S. & Pollock, A., Oct 2009, In : Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. 22, 4, p. 390-409 20 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

statistical method
expert
Calibration
Statistical methods
Statistical Methods
2008

Unscientific forecasts and wise decisions: Commentary on armstrong, green, and soon

Goodwin, P., Sep 2008, In : Interfaces. 38, 5, p. 400-402 3 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2007
87 Citations (Scopus)

Against your better judgment? How organizations can improve their use of management judgment in forecasting

Fildes, R. & Goodwin, P., 1 Nov 2007, In : Interfaces. 37, 6, p. 570-576

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

52 Citations (Scopus)

Forecasting with cue information: a comparison of multiple regression with alternative forecasting approaches

Nikolopoulos, K., Goodwin, P., Patelis, A. & Assimakopoulos, V., 2007, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 180, 1, p. 354-368 15 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Judgement in forecasting

Parackal, M., Goodwin, P. & O'Connor, M., Jul 2007, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 23, 3, p. 343-345 3 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

44 Citations (Scopus)

Providing support for the use of analogies in demand forecasting tasks

Lee, W. Y., Goodwin, P., Fildes, R., Nikolopoulos, K. & Lawrence, M., 2007, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 23, 3, p. 377-390 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Should we be using significance tests in forecasting research?

Goodwin, P., 2007, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 23, 2, p. 333-334 2 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

The ombudsman: forecasting conflict resolution: is it worth asking an expert?

Goodwin, P., May 2007, In : Interfaces. 37, 3, p. 285-286 2 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

17 Citations (Scopus)

The process of using a forecasting support system

Goodwin, P., Fildes, R., Lawrence, M. & Nikolopoulos, K., 2007, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 23, 3, p. 391-404 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2006
219 Citations (Scopus)

Judgmental forecasting: a review of progress over the last 25 years

Lawrence, M., Goodwin, P., O'Connor, M. & Onkal, D., 2006, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 22, 3, p. 493-518 26 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

64 Citations (Scopus)

The design features of forecasting support systems and their effectiveness

Fildes, R., Goodwin, P. & Lawrence, M., 2006, In : Decision Support Systems. 42, 1, p. 351-361 11 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

19 Citations (Scopus)
2004
31 Citations (Scopus)

Aviation risk perception: a comparison between experts and novices

Thomson, M. E., Onkal-Atay, D., Avcioglu, A. & Goodwin, P., 2004, In : Risk Analysis. 24, 6, p. 1585-1595

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

14 Citations (Scopus)

Feedback-labelling synergies in judgmental stock price forecasting

Goodwin, P., Onkal-Atay, D., Thomson, M. E., Pollock, A. E. & Macaulay, A., Apr 2004, In : Decision Support Systems. 37, 1, p. 175-186 12 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2003
6 Citations (Scopus)

Debiasing forecasts: how useful is the unbiasedness test?

Goodwin, P. & Lawton, R., 2003, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 19, 3, p. 467-475 9 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle