Paul Goodwin

Prof

20012019

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2019

Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst- and best-case scenarios

Goodwin, P., Gönül, M. S., Önkal, D., Kocabıyıkoğlu, A. & Göğüş, I., 1 Dec 2019, In : Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. 32, 5, p. 536-549 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
1 Downloads (Pure)

Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects

Fildes, R., Goodwin, P. & Önkal, D., 1 Jan 2019, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 35, 1, p. 144-156 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
7 Citations (Scopus)
8 Downloads (Pure)

When providing optimistic and pessimistic scenarios can be detrimental to judgmental demand forecasts and production decisions

Goodwin, P., Gönül, M. S. & Önkal, D., 16 Mar 2019, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 273, 3, p. 992-1004 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2018

What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk

Goodwin, P., Onkal, D. & Stekler, H. O., 1 Apr 2018, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 266, 1, p. 238-246 9 p., EOR_14705.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
1 Citation (Scopus)
24 Downloads (Pure)
2017

A note on upper bounds for forecast-value-added relative to naive forecasts

Goodwin, P., Petropoulos, F. & Hyndman, R. J., Sep 2017, In : Journal of the Operational Research Society. 68, 9, p. 1082-1084

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
161 Downloads (Pure)

Evaluating expert advice in forecasting: users’ reactions to presumed vs experienced credibility

Önkal, D., Gönül, M. S., Goodwin, P., Thomson, M. & Öz, E., Jan 2017, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 33, 1, p. 280-297

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

The influence of product involvement and emotion on short term product demand forecasting

Belvedere, V. & Goodwin, P., 22 Apr 2017, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 33, 3, p. 652-661

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
2 Citations (Scopus)
89 Downloads (Pure)
Open Access
File
8 Citations (Scopus)
123 Downloads (Pure)

When do changes in consumer preferences make forecasts from choice-based conjoint models unreliable?

Meeran, S., Jahanbin, S., Goodwin, P. & Quariguasi Frota Neto, J., 16 Apr 2017, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 258, 2, p. 512-524 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
7 Citations (Scopus)
156 Downloads (Pure)
2016

A decision-analysis-based framework for analyzing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning

Cairns, G., Goodwin, P. & Wright, G., 16 Mar 2016, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 249, 3, p. 1050-1062

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
12 Citations (Scopus)
119 Downloads (Pure)
Open Access
File
1 Citation (Scopus)
148 Downloads (Pure)

Do 'big losses' in judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts affect experts' behaviour

Petropoulos, F., Fildes, R. & Goodwin, P., 16 Mar 2016, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 249, 3, p. 842-852 11 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
20 Citations (Scopus)
65 Downloads (Pure)
2015

Corrigendum to Accuracy and bias of experts' adjusted forecasts [Ann. Tourism Res., 48, (2014), 156-174]

Lin, V. S., Goodwin, P. & Song, H., 1 Nov 2015, In : Annals of Tourism Research. 55, p. 194 1 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Is a more liberal approach to conservatism needed in forecasting?

Goodwin, P., Aug 2015, In : Journal of Business Research. 68, 8, p. 1753-1754

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
2 Citations (Scopus)
130 Downloads (Pure)

Reproducability in forecasting research

Boylan, J. E., Goodwin, P., Mohammadipour, M. & Syntetos, A., Mar 2015, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 31, 1, p. 79-90 12 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

File
20 Citations (Scopus)
73 Downloads (Pure)
Open Access
File
8 Citations (Scopus)
154 Downloads (Pure)
2014

Accuracy and bias of experts' adjusted forecasts

Lin, V. S., Goodwin, P. & Song, H., 1 Sep 2014, In : Annals of Tourism Research. 48, p. 156-174 19 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
11 Citations (Scopus)
182 Downloads (Pure)

The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products

Goodwin, P., Meeran, S. & Dyussekeneva, K., 1 Oct 2014, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 30, 4, p. 1082–1097 16 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
15 Citations (Scopus)
217 Downloads (Pure)
2013

Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice

Goodwin, P., Sinan Gönül, M. & Önkal, D., Apr 2013, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 29, 2, p. 354-366 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
12 Citations (Scopus)
145 Downloads (Pure)

The use of analogies in forecasting the annual sales of new electronics products

Goodwin, P., Dyussekeneva, K. & Meeran, S., Oct 2013, In : IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 24, 4, p. 407-422 16 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
16 Citations (Scopus)
237 Downloads (Pure)
2012

Approaches to displaying information to assist decisions under uncertainty

Kreye, M. E., Goh, Y. M., Newnes, L. B. & Goodwin, P., Dec 2012, In : Omega-International Journal of Management Science. 40, 6, p. 682-692 11 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
35 Citations (Scopus)
140 Downloads (Pure)
2011

Restrictiveness and guidance in support systems

Goodwin, P., Fildes, R., Lawrence, M. & Stephens, G., Jun 2011, In : Omega-International Journal of Management Science. 39, 3, p. 242-253 12 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

File
18 Citations (Scopus)
142 Downloads (Pure)

Do forecasts expressed as prediction intervals improve production planning decisions?

Goodwin, P., Onkal, D. & Thomson, M., 16 Aug 2010, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 205, 1, p. 195-201 7 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

29 Citations (Scopus)

The limits of forecasting methods in anticipating rare events

Goodwin, P. & Wright, G., Mar 2010, In : Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 77, 3, p. 355-368 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

95 Citations (Scopus)
2009

Common sense and hard decision analysis: why might they conflict?

Goodwin, P., 2009, In : Management Decision. 47, 3, p. 427-440 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method

Wright, G. & Goodwin, P., Oct 2009, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 25, 4, p. 813-825 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

128 Citations (Scopus)

Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: An empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning

Fildes, R., Goodwin, P., Lawrence, M. & Nikolopoulos, K., Jan 2009, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 25, 1, p. 3-23 21 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

185 Citations (Scopus)

Expectations, use and judgmental adjustment of external financial and economic forecasts: an empirical investigation

Gonul, S., Onkal, D. & Goodwin, P., Jan 2009, In : Journal of Forecasting. 28, 1, p. 19-37 19 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

20 Citations (Scopus)

Reply to Commentaries by Flores, Önkal and Sanders

Fildes, R., Goodwin, P., Lawrence, M. & Nikolopoulos, K., Jan 2009, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 25, 1, p. 32-34 3 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Teaching scenario planning: lessons from practice in academe and business

Wright, G., Cairns, G. & Goodwin, P., 1 Apr 2009, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 194, 1, p. 323-335 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

42 Citations (Scopus)

The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts

Syntetos, A. A., Nikolopoulos, K., Boylan, J. E., Fildes, R. & Goodwin, P., Mar 2009, In : International Journal of Production Economics. 118, 1, p. 72-81 10 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

72 Citations (Scopus)

The relative influence of advice from human experts and statistical methods on forecast adjustments

Onkal, D., Goodwin, P., Thomson, M., Gonul, S. & Pollock, A., Oct 2009, In : Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. 22, 4, p. 390-409 20 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

58 Citations (Scopus)
2008

Unscientific forecasts and wise decisions: Commentary on armstrong, green, and soon

Goodwin, P., Sep 2008, In : Interfaces. 38, 5, p. 400-402 3 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2007

Against your better judgment? How organizations can improve their use of management judgment in forecasting

Fildes, R. & Goodwin, P., 1 Nov 2007, In : Interfaces. 37, 6, p. 570-576

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

95 Citations (Scopus)

Forecasting with cue information: a comparison of multiple regression with alternative forecasting approaches

Nikolopoulos, K., Goodwin, P., Patelis, A. & Assimakopoulos, V., 2007, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 180, 1, p. 354-368 15 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

58 Citations (Scopus)

Judgement in forecasting

Parackal, M., Goodwin, P. & O'Connor, M., Jul 2007, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 23, 3, p. 343-345 3 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Providing support for the use of analogies in demand forecasting tasks

Lee, W. Y., Goodwin, P., Fildes, R., Nikolopoulos, K. & Lawrence, M., 2007, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 23, 3, p. 377-390 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

47 Citations (Scopus)

Should we be using significance tests in forecasting research?

Goodwin, P., 2007, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 23, 2, p. 333-334 2 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

The ombudsman: forecasting conflict resolution: is it worth asking an expert?

Goodwin, P., May 2007, In : Interfaces. 37, 3, p. 285-286 2 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

The process of using a forecasting support system

Goodwin, P., Fildes, R., Lawrence, M. & Nikolopoulos, K., 2007, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 23, 3, p. 391-404 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

18 Citations (Scopus)
2006

Judgmental forecasting: a review of progress over the last 25 years

Lawrence, M., Goodwin, P., O'Connor, M. & Onkal, D., 2006, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 22, 3, p. 493-518 26 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

232 Citations (Scopus)

The design features of forecasting support systems and their effectiveness

Fildes, R., Goodwin, P. & Lawrence, M., 2006, In : Decision Support Systems. 42, 1, p. 351-361 11 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

70 Citations (Scopus)
20 Citations (Scopus)
2004

Aviation risk perception: a comparison between experts and novices

Thomson, M. E., Onkal-Atay, D., Avcioglu, A. & Goodwin, P., 2004, In : Risk Analysis. 24, 6, p. 1585-1595

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

34 Citations (Scopus)

Feedback-labelling synergies in judgmental stock price forecasting

Goodwin, P., Onkal-Atay, D., Thomson, M. E., Pollock, A. E. & Macaulay, A., Apr 2004, In : Decision Support Systems. 37, 1, p. 175-186 12 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

14 Citations (Scopus)
2003

Debiasing forecasts: how useful is the unbiasedness test?

Goodwin, P. & Lawton, R., 2003, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 19, 3, p. 467-475 9 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Citations (Scopus)