Paul Goodwin – Research Output — the University of Bath's research portal

2018

Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: pitfalls and potential

Wright, G., Cairns, G., O'Brien, F. & Goodwin, P., 29 Aug 2018, In : European Journal of Operational Research.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Scenario Analysis

Decision making

Decision Making

Planning

Intuitive

Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects

Fildes, R., Goodwin, P. & Önkal, D., 19 Feb 2018, In : International Journal of Forecasting.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Supply chain

Discounting

Forecasting support system

Operations planning

Experiment

What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk

Goodwin, P., Onkal, D. & Stekler, H. O., 1 Apr 2018, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 266, 1, p. 238-246 EOR_14705.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Bayes' Formula

Prior Probability

Discrepancy

Likely

Economics

When providing best-case and worst-case scenarios can be detrimental to judgmental demand forecasts and production decisions

Goodwin, P., Gönül, M. S. & Önkal, D., 24 Sep 2018, (Accepted/In press) In : European Journal of Operational Research.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Forecast

Time series

Scenarios

Availability

Congruent

2017

A note on upper bounds for forecast-value-added relative to naive forecasts

Goodwin, P., Petropoulos, F. & Hyndman, R. J., Sep 2017, In : Journal of the Operational Research Society. 68, 9, p. 1082-1084

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Value engineering

Costs

Upper bound

Value added

Forecasting method

4 Citations

Evaluating expert advice in forecasting: users’ reactions to presumed vs experienced credibility

Önkal, D., Gönül, M. S., Goodwin, P., Thomson, M. & Öz, E., Jan 2017, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 33, 1, p. 280-297

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Credibility

Weighting

Advisors

Experiment

Knowledge elicitation

1 Citations

The influence of product involvement and emotion on short term product demand forecasting

Belvedere, V. & Goodwin, P., 22 Apr 2017, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 33, 3, p. 652-661

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Product involvement

Emotion

Demand forecasting

Product category

Leather

2 Citations

Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge

Petropoulos, F., Goodwin, P. & Fildes, R., Jan 2017, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 33, 1, p. 314-324 11 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Extrapolation

Forecast error

Performance feedback

Inefficiency

Experiment

5 Citations

When do changes in consumer preferences make forecasts from choice-based conjoint models unreliable?

Meeran, S., Jahanbin, S., Goodwin, P. & Quariguasi Frota Neto, J., 16 Apr 2017, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 258, 2, p. 512-524

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Forecast

Sales

Life cycle

Model

Life Cycle

2016

3 Citations

A decision-analysis-based framework for analyzing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning

Cairns, G., Goodwin, P. & Wright, G., 16 Mar 2016, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 249, 3, p. 1050-1062

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Decision Analysis

Decision theory

Planning

Unfolding

Scenarios

A parsimonious explanation of observed biases when forecasting one's own performance

Meeran, S., Goodwin, P. & Yalabik, B., 1 Jan 2016, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 32, 1, p. 112-120 9 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Forecast performance

Discount

Prediction

Anchoring

Heuristics

10 Citations

Do 'big losses' in judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts affect experts' behaviour

Petropoulos, F., Fildes, R. & Goodwin, P., 16 Mar 2016, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 249, 3, p. 842-852

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Forecast

Adjustment

Forecasting

Pharmaceuticals

Sports

2015

Corrigendum to Accuracy and bias of experts' adjusted forecasts [Ann. Tourism Res., 48, (2014), 156-174]

Lin, V. S., Goodwin, P. & Song, H., 1 Nov 2015, In : Annals of Tourism Research. 55, p. 194 1 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

1 Citations

Is a more liberal approach to conservatism needed in forecasting?

Goodwin, P., Aug 2015, In : Journal of Business Research. 68, 8, p. 1753-1754

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Conservatism

Golden rule

Probability forecasts

Interval forecasts

Check list

Reproducability in forecasting research

Boylan, J. E., Goodwin, P., Mohammadipour, M. & Syntetos, A., Mar 2015, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 31, 1, p. 79-90 12 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

File

Forecasting method

Discrepancy

Replication

Decomposition

Documentation

The Development of an Approach and Decision Support Tool to Inform Sustainable Roof Selection

Hampshire, P., 27 Feb 2015, (Unpublished) 511 p.

Research output: Thesis › Doctoral Thesis

File

roof

sustainability

decision

action research

environmental values

The Impact of Consumer and Product Characteristics on Change in Attribute- Weights over Time and its Implications for New Product Sales Forecasting Using Choice-based Conjoint Analysis

Jahanbin, S., 19 May 2015, (Unpublished) 241 p.

Research output: Thesis › Doctoral Thesis

File

Choice-based conjoint analysis

Sales forecasting

New products

Product characteristics

Market share

4 Citations

When simple alternatives to Bayes formula work well: reducing the cognitive load when updating probability forecasts

Goodwin, P., Aug 2015, In : Journal of Business Research. 68, 8, p. 1686-1691

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Probability forecasts

Cognitive load

Heuristics

Gambles

Bayes' theorem

2014

7 Citations

Accuracy and bias of experts' adjusted forecasts

Lin, V. S., Goodwin, P. & Song, H., 1 Sep 2014, In : Annals of Tourism Research. 48, p. 156-174 19 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

expert

statistical test

trend

econometrics

regression analysis

11 Citations

The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products

Goodwin, P., Meeran, S. & Dyussekeneva, K., Oct 2014, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 30, 4, p. 1082–1097 16 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Durables

Formal model

Product launch

Diffusion process

Research agenda

2013

9 Citations

Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice

Goodwin, P., Sinan Gönül, M. & Önkal, D., Apr 2013, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 29, 2, p. 354-366 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Forecasting support system

Calibration

Interval forecasts

Experiment

Prediction interval

2 Citations

Sales forecasting using combination of diffusion model and forecast market: An adaption of prediction/preference markets

Meeran, S., Dyussekeneva, K. & Goodwin, P., 2013, Proceedings of 7th IFAC Conference on Manufacturing Modelling, Management, and Control, 2013. IFAC, p. 87-92 6 p. (Manufacturing Modelling, Management, and Control; vol. 7, no. 1).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

Diffusion model

Sales forecasting

Prediction

New products

Growth curve

8 Citations

Structuring the decision process: an evaluation of methods

Wright, G. & Goodwin, P., 2013, The Oxford Handbook of Organizational Decision Making. Starbuck, W. H. & Hodgkinson, G. P. (eds.). Oxford, U. K.: Oxford University Press, p. 534-551 (Oxford Handbooks in Business and Management).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter

11 Citations

The use of analogies in forecasting the annual sales of new electronics products

Goodwin, P., Dyussekeneva, K. & Meeran, S., Oct 2013, In : IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 24, 4, p. 407-422 16 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Annual

Analogy

Forecasting

Sales

Electronic equipment

2012

22 Citations

Approaches to displaying information to assist decisions under uncertainty

Kreye, M. E., Goh, Y. M., Newnes, L. B. & Goodwin, P., Dec 2012, In : Omega-International Journal of Management Science. 40, 6, p. 682-692 11 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Decision under uncertainty

Uncertainty

Costs

Diagrams

Decision maker

4 Citations

Robust testing of the utility-based high-technology product sales forecasting models proposed by Decker and Gnibba-Yukawa

Goodwin, P. & Meeran, S., Dec 2012, In : Journal of Product Innovation Management. 29, S1, p. 211-218 8 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2011

New product sales forecasting: the relative accuracy of statistical, judgemental and combination forecasts

Dyussekeneva, K., Oct 2011, (Unpublished)

Research output: Thesis › Doctoral Thesis

File

Combination forecast

Sales forecasting

New products

Costs

Diffusion model

15 Citations

Restrictiveness and guidance in support systems

Goodwin, P., Fildes, R., Lawrence, M. & Stephens, G., Jun 2011, In : Omega-International Journal of Management Science. 39, 3, p. 242-253 12 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

File

Guidance

Damage

Experiment

Demand forecasting

2010

Business forecasters can gain from the cross-fertilization of IOOB and JDM

Goodwin, P., Dec 2010, In : Industrial and Organizational Psychology: Perspectives on Science and Practice. 3, 4, p. 429-430 2 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

23 Citations

Do forecasts expressed as prediction intervals improve production planning decisions?

Goodwin, P., Onkal, D. & Thomson, M., 16 Aug 2010, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 205, 1, p. 195-201 7 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Prediction Interval

Production Planning

Forecast

Planning

Heuristics

82 Citations

The limits of forecasting methods in anticipating rare events

Goodwin, P. & Wright, G., Mar 2010, In : Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 77, 3, p. 355-368 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2009

5 Citations

Common sense and hard decision analysis: why might they conflict?

Goodwin, P., 2009, In : Management Decision. 47, 3, p. 427-440 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Common sense

Decision analysis

Decision making

Managers

Decision model

Decision Analysis for Management Judgment (4th ed.)

Goodwin, P. & Wright, G., 2009, Chichester, U. K.: Wiley.

Research output: Book/Report › Book

103 Citations

Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method

Wright, G. & Goodwin, P., Oct 2009, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 25, 4, p. 813-825 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Scenario planning

Predictability

Planning

Decision making

Scenario method

144 Citations

Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: An empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning

Fildes, R., Goodwin, P., Lawrence, M. & Nikolopoulos, K., Jan 2009, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 25, 1, p. 3-23 21 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Empirical evaluation

Supply chain planning

Supply chain

Demand forecasting

Optimism

17 Citations

Expectations, use and judgmental adjustment of external financial and economic forecasts: an empirical investigation

Gonul, S., Onkal, D. & Goodwin, P., Jan 2009, In : Journal of Forecasting. 28, 1, p. 19-37 19 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Forecast

Adjustment

Acoustic waves

Economics

Feedback

Reply to Commentaries by Flores, Önkal and Sanders

Fildes, R., Goodwin, P., Lawrence, M. & Nikolopoulos, K., Jan 2009, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 25, 1, p. 32-34 3 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

36 Citations

Teaching scenario planning: lessons from practice in academe and business

Wright, G., Cairns, G. & Goodwin, P., 1 Apr 2009, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 194, 1, p. 323-335 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Teaching

Planning

Scenarios

Industry

Formal methods

60 Citations

The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts

Syntetos, A. A., Nikolopoulos, K., Boylan, J. E., Fildes, R. & Goodwin, P., Mar 2009, In : International Journal of Production Economics. 118, 1, p. 72-81 10 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Inventory control

Sales

Industry

Drug products

Marketing

37 Citations