Paul Goodwin

2019

Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst- and best-case scenarios

Goodwin, P., Gönül, M. S., Önkal, D., Kocabıyıkoğlu, A. & Göğüş, I., 1 Dec 2019, In : Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. 32, 5, p. 536-549 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Forecast decisions

Goodwin, P., Moritz, B. & Siemsen, E., 18 Jan 2019, The Handbook of Behavioral Operations. Donohue, K., Katok, E. & Leider, S. (eds.). Hoboken, U. S. A.: Wiley, p. 433-458 26 p. (Wiley Series in Operations Research and Management Science).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter

3 Citations (Scopus)

Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: pitfalls and potential

Wright, G., Cairns, G., O'Brien, F. & Goodwin, P., 1 Oct 2019, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 278, 1, p. 3-19 17 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article

Scenario Analysis

Decision making

Decision Making

Planning

Intuitive

Supporting multiattribute decisions in scenario planning using a simple method based on ranks

Goodwin, P., 25 Oct 2019, In : Futures and Foresight Science. 1, 3-4, e00018.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

5 Citations (Scopus)

Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects

Fildes, R., Goodwin, P. & Önkal, D., 1 Jan 2019, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 35, 1, p. 144-156 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Supply chain

Discounting

Forecasting support system

Operations planning

Experiment

When providing optimistic and pessimistic scenarios can be detrimental to judgmental demand forecasts and production decisions

Goodwin, P., Gönül, M. S. & Önkal, D., 16 Mar 2019, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 273, 3, p. 992-1004 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Forecast

Time series

Scenarios

Availability

Congruent

2018

16 Downloads (Pure)

What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk

Goodwin, P., Onkal, D. & Stekler, H. O., 1 Apr 2018, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 266, 1, p. 238-246 9 p., EOR_14705.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Bayes' Formula

Prior Probability

Discrepancy

Likely

Economics

2017

132 Downloads (Pure)

A note on upper bounds for forecast-value-added relative to naive forecasts

Goodwin, P., Petropoulos, F. & Hyndman, R. J., Sep 2017, In : Journal of the Operational Research Society. 68, 9, p. 1082-1084

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Value engineering

Costs

Upper bound

Value added

Forecasting method

5 Citations (Scopus)

Evaluating expert advice in forecasting: users’ reactions to presumed vs experienced credibility

Önkal, D., Gönül, M. S., Goodwin, P., Thomson, M. & Öz, E., Jan 2017, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 33, 1, p. 280-297

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Credibility

Weighting

Advisors

Experiment

Knowledge elicitation

2 Citations (Scopus)

64 Downloads (Pure)

The influence of product involvement and emotion on short term product demand forecasting

Belvedere, V. & Goodwin, P., 22 Apr 2017, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 33, 3, p. 652-661

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Product involvement

Emotion

Demand forecasting

Product category

Leather

7 Citations (Scopus)

98 Downloads (Pure)

Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge

Petropoulos, F., Goodwin, P. & Fildes, R., Jan 2017, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 33, 1, p. 314-324 11 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Extrapolation

Forecast error

Performance feedback

Inefficiency

Experiment

7 Citations (Scopus)

120 Downloads (Pure)

When do changes in consumer preferences make forecasts from choice-based conjoint models unreliable?

Meeran, S., Jahanbin, S., Goodwin, P. & Quariguasi Frota Neto, J., 16 Apr 2017, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 258, 2, p. 512-524 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Forecast

Sales

Life cycle

Model

Life Cycle

2016

11 Citations (Scopus)

96 Downloads (Pure)

A decision-analysis-based framework for analyzing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning

Cairns, G., Goodwin, P. & Wright, G., 16 Mar 2016, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 249, 3, p. 1050-1062

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Decision Analysis

Decision theory

Planning

Unfolding

Scenarios

1 Citation (Scopus)

119 Downloads (Pure)

A parsimonious explanation of observed biases when forecasting one's own performance

Meeran, S., Goodwin, P. & Yalabik, B., 1 Jan 2016, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 32, 1, p. 112-120 9 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Forecast performance

Discount

Prediction

Anchoring

Heuristics

19 Citations (Scopus)

65 Downloads (Pure)

Do 'big losses' in judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts affect experts' behaviour

Petropoulos, F., Fildes, R. & Goodwin, P., 16 Mar 2016, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 249, 3, p. 842-852 11 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

Forecast

Adjustment

Forecasting

Pharmaceuticals

Sports

2015

Corrigendum to Accuracy and bias of experts' adjusted forecasts [Ann. Tourism Res., 48, (2014), 156-174]

Lin, V. S., Goodwin, P. & Song, H., 1 Nov 2015, In : Annals of Tourism Research. 55, p. 194 1 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2 Citations (Scopus)

105 Downloads (Pure)

Is a more liberal approach to conservatism needed in forecasting?

Goodwin, P., Aug 2015, In : Journal of Business Research. 68, 8, p. 1753-1754

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Conservatism

Golden rule

Probability forecasts

Interval forecasts

Check list

19 Citations (Scopus)

53 Downloads (Pure)

Reproducability in forecasting research

Boylan, J. E., Goodwin, P., Mohammadipour, M. & Syntetos, A., Mar 2015, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 31, 1, p. 79-90 12 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

File

Forecasting method

Discrepancy

Replication

Decomposition

Documentation

6 Citations (Scopus)

117 Downloads (Pure)

When simple alternatives to Bayes formula work well: reducing the cognitive load when updating probability forecasts

Goodwin, P., Aug 2015, In : Journal of Business Research. 68, 8, p. 1686-1691

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Probability forecasts

Cognitive load

Heuristics

Gambles

Bayes' theorem

2014

10 Citations (Scopus)

143 Downloads (Pure)

Accuracy and bias of experts' adjusted forecasts

Lin, V. S., Goodwin, P. & Song, H., 1 Sep 2014, In : Annals of Tourism Research. 48, p. 156-174 19 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

expert

statistical test

trend

econometrics

regression analysis

15 Citations (Scopus)

169 Downloads (Pure)

The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products

Goodwin, P., Meeran, S. & Dyussekeneva, K., 1 Oct 2014, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 30, 4, p. 1082–1097 16 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Durables

Formal model

Product launch

Diffusion process

Research agenda

2013

11 Citations (Scopus)

117 Downloads (Pure)

Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice

Goodwin, P., Sinan Gönül, M. & Önkal, D., Apr 2013, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 29, 2, p. 354-366 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Forecasting support system

Calibration

Interval forecasts

Experiment

Prediction interval

2 Citations (Scopus)

Sales forecasting using combination of diffusion model and forecast market: An adaption of prediction/preference markets

Meeran, S., Dyussekeneva, K. & Goodwin, P., 2013, Proceedings of 7th IFAC Conference on Manufacturing Modelling, Management, and Control, 2013. IFAC, p. 87-92 6 p. (Manufacturing Modelling, Management, and Control; vol. 7, no. 1).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

Diffusion model

Sales forecasting

Prediction

New products

Growth curve

9 Citations (Scopus)

Structuring the decision process: an evaluation of methods

Wright, G. & Goodwin, P., 2013, The Oxford Handbook of Organizational Decision Making. Starbuck, W. H. & Hodgkinson, G. P. (eds.). Oxford, U. K.: Oxford University Press, p. 534-551 (Oxford Handbooks in Business and Management).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter

15 Citations (Scopus)

157 Downloads (Pure)

The use of analogies in forecasting the annual sales of new electronics products

Goodwin, P., Dyussekeneva, K. & Meeran, S., Oct 2013, In : IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 24, 4, p. 407-422 16 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Annual

Analogy

Forecasting

Sales

Electronic equipment

2012

32 Citations (Scopus)

109 Downloads (Pure)

Approaches to displaying information to assist decisions under uncertainty

Kreye, M. E., Goh, Y. M., Newnes, L. B. & Goodwin, P., Dec 2012, In : Omega-International Journal of Management Science. 40, 6, p. 682-692 11 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access

File

Decision under uncertainty

Uncertainty

Costs

Diagrams

Decision maker

4 Citations (Scopus)

Robust testing of the utility-based high-technology product sales forecasting models proposed by Decker and Gnibba-Yukawa

Goodwin, P. & Meeran, S., Dec 2012, In : Journal of Product Innovation Management. 29, S1, p. 211-218 8 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2011

18 Citations (Scopus)

113 Downloads (Pure)

Restrictiveness and guidance in support systems

Goodwin, P., Fildes, R., Lawrence, M. & Stephens, G., Jun 2011, In : Omega-International Journal of Management Science. 39, 3, p. 242-253 12 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

File

Guidance

Damage

Experiment

Demand forecasting

2010

Business forecasters can gain from the cross-fertilization of IOOB and JDM

Goodwin, P., Dec 2010, In : Industrial and Organizational Psychology: Perspectives on Science and Practice. 3, 4, p. 429-430 2 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

28 Citations (Scopus)

Do forecasts expressed as prediction intervals improve production planning decisions?

Goodwin, P., Onkal, D. & Thomson, M., 16 Aug 2010, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 205, 1, p. 195-201 7 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Prediction Interval

Production Planning

Forecast

Planning

Heuristics

91 Citations (Scopus)

The limits of forecasting methods in anticipating rare events

Goodwin, P. & Wright, G., Mar 2010, In : Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 77, 3, p. 355-368 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2009

5 Citations (Scopus)

Common sense and hard decision analysis: why might they conflict?

Goodwin, P., 2009, In : Management Decision. 47, 3, p. 427-440 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Common sense

Decision analysis

Decision making

Managers

Decision model

Decision Analysis for Management Judgment (4th ed.)

Goodwin, P. & Wright, G., 2009, Chichester, U. K.: Wiley.

Research output: Book/Report › Book

121 Citations (Scopus)

Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method

Wright, G. & Goodwin, P., Oct 2009, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 25, 4, p. 813-825 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Scenario planning

Predictability

Planning

Decision making

Scenario method

174 Citations (Scopus)

Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: An empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning

Fildes, R., Goodwin, P., Lawrence, M. & Nikolopoulos, K., Jan 2009, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 25, 1, p. 3-23 21 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Empirical evaluation

Supply chain planning

Supply chain

Demand forecasting

Optimism

20 Citations (Scopus)

Expectations, use and judgmental adjustment of external financial and economic forecasts: an empirical investigation

Gonul, S., Onkal, D. & Goodwin, P., Jan 2009, In : Journal of Forecasting. 28, 1, p. 19-37 19 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Forecast

Adjustment

Acoustic waves

Economics

Feedback

Reply to Commentaries by Flores, Önkal and Sanders

Fildes, R., Goodwin, P., Lawrence, M. & Nikolopoulos, K., Jan 2009, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 25, 1, p. 32-34 3 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

41 Citations (Scopus)

Teaching scenario planning: lessons from practice in academe and business

Wright, G., Cairns, G. & Goodwin, P., 1 Apr 2009, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 194, 1, p. 323-335 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Teaching

Planning

Scenarios

Industry

Formal methods

71 Citations (Scopus)

The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts

Syntetos, A. A., Nikolopoulos, K., Boylan, J. E., Fildes, R. & Goodwin, P., Mar 2009, In : International Journal of Production Economics. 118, 1, p. 72-81 10 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Inventory control

Sales

Industry

Drug products

Marketing

52 Citations (Scopus)