Research Output per year
Research Output
2019
Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst- and best-case scenarios
Goodwin, P., Gönül, M. S., Önkal, D., Kocabıyıkoğlu, A. & Göğüş, I., 1 Dec 2019, In : Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. 32, 5, p. 536-549 14 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Forecast decisions
Goodwin, P., Moritz, B. & Siemsen, E., 18 Jan 2019, The Handbook of Behavioral Operations. Donohue, K., Katok, E. & Leider, S. (eds.). Hoboken, U. S. A.: Wiley, p. 433-458 26 p. (Wiley Series in Operations Research and Management Science).Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter
Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: pitfalls and potential
Wright, G., Cairns, G., O'Brien, F. & Goodwin, P., 1 Oct 2019, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 278, 1, p. 3-19 17 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article
3
Citations
(Scopus)
Supporting multiattribute decisions in scenario planning using a simple method based on ranks
Goodwin, P., 25 Oct 2019, In : Futures and Foresight Science. 1, 3-4, e00018.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Open Access
File
1
Downloads
(Pure)
Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects
Fildes, R., Goodwin, P. & Önkal, D., 1 Jan 2019, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 35, 1, p. 144-156 13 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Open Access
File
7
Citations
(Scopus)
8
Downloads
(Pure)
When providing optimistic and pessimistic scenarios can be detrimental to judgmental demand forecasts and production decisions
Goodwin, P., Gönül, M. S. & Önkal, D., 16 Mar 2019, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 273, 3, p. 992-1004 13 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
2018
What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk
Goodwin, P., Onkal, D. & Stekler, H. O., 1 Apr 2018, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 266, 1, p. 238-246 9 p., EOR_14705.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Open Access
File
1
Citation
(Scopus)
24
Downloads
(Pure)
2017
A note on upper bounds for forecast-value-added relative to naive forecasts
Goodwin, P., Petropoulos, F. & Hyndman, R. J., Sep 2017, In : Journal of the Operational Research Society. 68, 9, p. 1082-1084Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Open Access
File
161
Downloads
(Pure)
Evaluating expert advice in forecasting: users’ reactions to presumed vs experienced credibility
Önkal, D., Gönül, M. S., Goodwin, P., Thomson, M. & Öz, E., Jan 2017, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 33, 1, p. 280-297Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
5
Citations
(Scopus)
The influence of product involvement and emotion on short term product demand forecasting
Belvedere, V. & Goodwin, P., 22 Apr 2017, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 33, 3, p. 652-661Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Open Access
File
2
Citations
(Scopus)
89
Downloads
(Pure)
Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge
Petropoulos, F., Goodwin, P. & Fildes, R., Jan 2017, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 33, 1, p. 314-324 11 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Open Access
File
8
Citations
(Scopus)
123
Downloads
(Pure)
When do changes in consumer preferences make forecasts from choice-based conjoint models unreliable?
Meeran, S., Jahanbin, S., Goodwin, P. & Quariguasi Frota Neto, J., 16 Apr 2017, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 258, 2, p. 512-524 13 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Open Access
File
7
Citations
(Scopus)
156
Downloads
(Pure)
2016
A decision-analysis-based framework for analyzing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning
Cairns, G., Goodwin, P. & Wright, G., 16 Mar 2016, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 249, 3, p. 1050-1062Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Open Access
File
12
Citations
(Scopus)
119
Downloads
(Pure)
A parsimonious explanation of observed biases when forecasting one's own performance
Meeran, S., Goodwin, P. & Yalabik, B., 1 Jan 2016, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 32, 1, p. 112-120 9 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Open Access
File
1
Citation
(Scopus)
148
Downloads
(Pure)
Do 'big losses' in judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts affect experts' behaviour
Petropoulos, F., Fildes, R. & Goodwin, P., 16 Mar 2016, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 249, 3, p. 842-852 11 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Open Access
20
Citations
(Scopus)
65
Downloads
(Pure)
2015
Corrigendum to Accuracy and bias of experts' adjusted forecasts [Ann. Tourism Res., 48, (2014), 156-174]
Lin, V. S., Goodwin, P. & Song, H., 1 Nov 2015, In : Annals of Tourism Research. 55, p. 194 1 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Is a more liberal approach to conservatism needed in forecasting?
Goodwin, P., Aug 2015, In : Journal of Business Research. 68, 8, p. 1753-1754Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Open Access
File
2
Citations
(Scopus)
130
Downloads
(Pure)
Reproducability in forecasting research
Boylan, J. E., Goodwin, P., Mohammadipour, M. & Syntetos, A., Mar 2015, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 31, 1, p. 79-90 12 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
File
20
Citations
(Scopus)
73
Downloads
(Pure)
When simple alternatives to Bayes formula work well: reducing the cognitive load when updating probability forecasts
Goodwin, P., Aug 2015, In : Journal of Business Research. 68, 8, p. 1686-1691Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Open Access
File
8
Citations
(Scopus)
154
Downloads
(Pure)
2014
Accuracy and bias of experts' adjusted forecasts
Lin, V. S., Goodwin, P. & Song, H., 1 Sep 2014, In : Annals of Tourism Research. 48, p. 156-174 19 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Open Access
File
11
Citations
(Scopus)
182
Downloads
(Pure)
The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products
Goodwin, P., Meeran, S. & Dyussekeneva, K., 1 Oct 2014, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 30, 4, p. 1082–1097 16 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Open Access
File
15
Citations
(Scopus)
215
Downloads
(Pure)
2013
Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice
Goodwin, P., Sinan Gönül, M. & Önkal, D., Apr 2013, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 29, 2, p. 354-366 13 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Open Access
File
12
Citations
(Scopus)
145
Downloads
(Pure)
Sales forecasting using combination of diffusion model and forecast market: An adaption of prediction/preference markets
Meeran, S., Dyussekeneva, K. & Goodwin, P., 2013, Proceedings of 7th IFAC Conference on Manufacturing Modelling, Management, and Control, 2013. IFAC, p. 87-92 6 p. (Manufacturing Modelling, Management, and Control; vol. 7, no. 1).Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution
2
Citations
(Scopus)
Structuring the decision process: an evaluation of methods
Wright, G. & Goodwin, P., 2013, The Oxford Handbook of Organizational Decision Making. Starbuck, W. H. & Hodgkinson, G. P. (eds.). Oxford, U. K.: Oxford University Press, p. 534-551 (Oxford Handbooks in Business and Management).Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter
9
Citations
(Scopus)
The use of analogies in forecasting the annual sales of new electronics products
Goodwin, P., Dyussekeneva, K. & Meeran, S., Oct 2013, In : IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 24, 4, p. 407-422 16 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Open Access
File
16
Citations
(Scopus)
236
Downloads
(Pure)
2012
Approaches to displaying information to assist decisions under uncertainty
Kreye, M. E., Goh, Y. M., Newnes, L. B. & Goodwin, P., Dec 2012, In : Omega-International Journal of Management Science. 40, 6, p. 682-692 11 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Open Access
File
35
Citations
(Scopus)
140
Downloads
(Pure)
Robust testing of the utility-based high-technology product sales forecasting models proposed by Decker and Gnibba-Yukawa
Goodwin, P. & Meeran, S., Dec 2012, In : Journal of Product Innovation Management. 29, S1, p. 211-218 8 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
4
Citations
(Scopus)
2011
Restrictiveness and guidance in support systems
Goodwin, P., Fildes, R., Lawrence, M. & Stephens, G., Jun 2011, In : Omega-International Journal of Management Science. 39, 3, p. 242-253 12 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
File
18
Citations
(Scopus)
142
Downloads
(Pure)
2010
Business forecasters can gain from the cross-fertilization of IOOB and JDM
Goodwin, P., Dec 2010, In : Industrial and Organizational Psychology: Perspectives on Science and Practice. 3, 4, p. 429-430 2 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Do forecasts expressed as prediction intervals improve production planning decisions?
Goodwin, P., Onkal, D. & Thomson, M., 16 Aug 2010, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 205, 1, p. 195-201 7 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
29
Citations
(Scopus)
The limits of forecasting methods in anticipating rare events
Goodwin, P. & Wright, G., Mar 2010, In : Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 77, 3, p. 355-368 14 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
95
Citations
(Scopus)
2009
Common sense and hard decision analysis: why might they conflict?
Goodwin, P., 2009, In : Management Decision. 47, 3, p. 427-440 14 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
5
Citations
(Scopus)
Decision Analysis for Management Judgment (4th ed.)
Goodwin, P. & Wright, G., 2009, Chichester, U. K.: Wiley.Research output: Book/Report › Book
Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method
Wright, G. & Goodwin, P., Oct 2009, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 25, 4, p. 813-825 13 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
128
Citations
(Scopus)
Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: An empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning
Fildes, R., Goodwin, P., Lawrence, M. & Nikolopoulos, K., Jan 2009, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 25, 1, p. 3-23 21 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
185
Citations
(Scopus)
Expectations, use and judgmental adjustment of external financial and economic forecasts: an empirical investigation
Gonul, S., Onkal, D. & Goodwin, P., Jan 2009, In : Journal of Forecasting. 28, 1, p. 19-37 19 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
20
Citations
(Scopus)
Reply to Commentaries by Flores, Önkal and Sanders
Fildes, R., Goodwin, P., Lawrence, M. & Nikolopoulos, K., Jan 2009, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 25, 1, p. 32-34 3 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Teaching scenario planning: lessons from practice in academe and business
Wright, G., Cairns, G. & Goodwin, P., 1 Apr 2009, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 194, 1, p. 323-335 13 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
42
Citations
(Scopus)
The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts
Syntetos, A. A., Nikolopoulos, K., Boylan, J. E., Fildes, R. & Goodwin, P., Mar 2009, In : International Journal of Production Economics. 118, 1, p. 72-81 10 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
72
Citations
(Scopus)
The relative influence of advice from human experts and statistical methods on forecast adjustments
Onkal, D., Goodwin, P., Thomson, M., Gonul, S. & Pollock, A., Oct 2009, In : Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. 22, 4, p. 390-409 20 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
58
Citations
(Scopus)
2008
Unscientific forecasts and wise decisions: Commentary on armstrong, green, and soon
Goodwin, P., Sep 2008, In : Interfaces. 38, 5, p. 400-402 3 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
2007
Against your better judgment? How organizations can improve their use of management judgment in forecasting
Fildes, R. & Goodwin, P., 1 Nov 2007, In : Interfaces. 37, 6, p. 570-576Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
95
Citations
(Scopus)
Forecasting with cue information: a comparison of multiple regression with alternative forecasting approaches
Nikolopoulos, K., Goodwin, P., Patelis, A. & Assimakopoulos, V., 2007, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 180, 1, p. 354-368 15 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
58
Citations
(Scopus)
Judgement in forecasting
Parackal, M., Goodwin, P. & O'Connor, M., Jul 2007, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 23, 3, p. 343-345 3 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
4
Citations
(Scopus)
Providing support for the use of analogies in demand forecasting tasks
Lee, W. Y., Goodwin, P., Fildes, R., Nikolopoulos, K. & Lawrence, M., 2007, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 23, 3, p. 377-390 14 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
47
Citations
(Scopus)
Should we be using significance tests in forecasting research?
Goodwin, P., 2007, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 23, 2, p. 333-334 2 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
5
Citations
(Scopus)
The ombudsman: forecasting conflict resolution: is it worth asking an expert?
Goodwin, P., May 2007, In : Interfaces. 37, 3, p. 285-286 2 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
The process of using a forecasting support system
Goodwin, P., Fildes, R., Lawrence, M. & Nikolopoulos, K., 2007, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 23, 3, p. 391-404 14 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
18
Citations
(Scopus)
2006
Judgmental forecasting: a review of progress over the last 25 years
Lawrence, M., Goodwin, P., O'Connor, M. & Onkal, D., 2006, In : International Journal of Forecasting. 22, 3, p. 493-518 26 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
232
Citations
(Scopus)
The design features of forecasting support systems and their effectiveness
Fildes, R., Goodwin, P. & Lawrence, M., 2006, In : Decision Support Systems. 42, 1, p. 351-361 11 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
70
Citations
(Scopus)