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Paul Goodwin

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Research Output 2001 2018

2018

Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: pitfalls and potential

Wright, G., Cairns, G., O'Brien, F. & Goodwin, P. 29 Aug 2018 In : European Journal of Operational Research.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Scenario Analysis
Decision making
Decision Making
Planning
Intuitive

Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects

Fildes, R., Goodwin, P. & Önkal, D. 19 Feb 2018 In : International Journal of Forecasting.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Supply chain
Discounting
Forecasting support system
Operations planning
Experiment

What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk

Goodwin, P., Onkal, D. & Stekler, H. O. 1 Apr 2018 In : European Journal of Operational Research. 266, 1, p. 238-246 EOR_14705

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Bayes' Formula
Prior Probability
Discrepancy
Likely
Economics
2017

A note on upper bounds for forecast-value-added relative to naive forecasts

Goodwin, P., Petropoulos, F. & Hyndman, R. J. Sep 2017 In : Journal of the Operational Research Society. 68, 9, p. 1082-1084

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access
File
Value engineering
Costs
Upper bound
Value added
Forecasting method
2 Citations

Evaluating expert advice in forecasting: users’ reactions to presumed vs experienced credibility

Önkal, D., Gönül, M. S., Goodwin, P., Thomson, M. & Öz, E. Jan 2017 In : International Journal of Forecasting. 33, 1, p. 280-297

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Credibility
Weighting
Advisors
Experiment
Knowledge elicitation
1 Citations

The influence of product involvement and emotion on short term product demand forecasting

Belvedere, V. & Goodwin, P. 22 Apr 2017 In : International Journal of Forecasting. 33, 3, p. 652-661

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Product involvement
Emotion
Demand forecasting
Product category
Leather
2 Citations

Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge

Petropoulos, F., Goodwin, P. & Fildes, R. Jan 2017 In : International Journal of Forecasting. 33, 1, p. 314-324 11 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access
File
Extrapolation
Forecast error
Performance feedback
Inefficiency
Experiment
4 Citations

When do changes in consumer preferences make forecasts from choice-based conjoint models unreliable?

Meeran, S., Jahanbin, S., Goodwin, P. & Quariguasi Frota Neto, J. 16 Apr 2017 In : European Journal of Operational Research. 258, 2, p. 512-524

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access
File
Forecast
Sales
Life cycle
Model
Life Cycle
2016
2 Citations

A decision-analysis-based framework for analyzing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning

Cairns, G., Goodwin, P. & Wright, G. 16 Mar 2016 In : European Journal of Operational Research. 249, 3, p. 1050-1062

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access
File
Decision Analysis
Decision theory
Planning
Unfolding
Scenarios

A parsimonious explanation of observed biases when forecasting one's own performance

Meeran, S., Goodwin, P. & Yalabik, B. 1 Jan 2016 In : International Journal of Forecasting. 32, 1, p. 112-120 9 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access
File
Forecast performance
Discount
Prediction
Anchoring
Heuristics
8 Citations

Do 'big losses' in judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts affect experts' behaviour

Petropoulos, F., Fildes, R. & Goodwin, P. 16 Mar 2016 In : European Journal of Operational Research. 249, 3, p. 842-852

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access
File
Forecast
Adjustment
Forecasting
Pharmaceuticals
Sports
2015

Corrigendum to Accuracy and bias of experts' adjusted forecasts [Ann. Tourism Res., 48, (2014), 156-174]

Lin, V. S., Goodwin, P. & Song, H. 1 Nov 2015 In : Annals of Tourism Research. 55, p. 194 1 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

1 Citations

Is a more liberal approach to conservatism needed in forecasting?

Goodwin, P. Aug 2015 In : Journal of Business Research. 68, 8, p. 1753-1754

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access
File
Conservatism
Golden rule
Probability forecasts
Interval forecasts
Check list

Reproducability in forecasting research

Boylan, J. E., Goodwin, P., Mohammadipour, M. & Syntetos, A. Mar 2015 In : International Journal of Forecasting. 31, 1, p. 79-90 12 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

File
Forecasting method
Discrepancy
Replication
Decomposition
Documentation

The Development of an Approach and Decision Support Tool to Inform Sustainable Roof Selection

Hampshire, P. 27 Feb 2015 (Unpublished) 511 p.

Research output: Thesis › Doctoral Thesis

File
roof
sustainability
decision
action research
environmental values

The Impact of Consumer and Product Characteristics on Change in Attribute- Weights over Time and its Implications for New Product Sales Forecasting Using Choice-based Conjoint Analysis

Jahanbin, S. 19 May 2015 (Unpublished) 241 p.

Research output: Thesis › Doctoral Thesis

File
Choice-based conjoint analysis
Sales forecasting
New products
Product characteristics
Market share
3 Citations

When simple alternatives to Bayes formula work well: reducing the cognitive load when updating probability forecasts

Goodwin, P. Aug 2015 In : Journal of Business Research. 68, 8, p. 1686-1691

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access
File
Probability forecasts
Cognitive load
Heuristics
Gambles
Bayes' theorem
2014
6 Citations

Accuracy and bias of experts' adjusted forecasts

Lin, V. S., Goodwin, P. & Song, H. 1 Sep 2014 In : Annals of Tourism Research. 48, p. 156-174 19 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access
File
expert
statistical test
trend
econometrics
regression analysis
11 Citations

The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products

Goodwin, P., Meeran, S. & Dyussekeneva, K. Oct 2014 In : International Journal of Forecasting. 30, 4, p. 1082–1097 16 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access
File
Durables
Formal model
Product launch
Diffusion process
Research agenda
2013
8 Citations

Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice

Goodwin, P., Sinan Gönül, M. & Önkal, D. Apr 2013 In : International Journal of Forecasting. 29, 2, p. 354-366 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access
File
Forecasting support system
Calibration
Interval forecasts
Experiment
Prediction interval
2 Citations

Sales forecasting using combination of diffusion model and forecast market: An adaption of prediction/preference markets

Meeran, S., Dyussekeneva, K. & Goodwin, P. 2013 Proceedings of 7th IFAC Conference on Manufacturing Modelling, Management, and Control, 2013. IFAC, p. 87-92 6 p. (Manufacturing Modelling, Management, and Control; vol. 7, no. 1)

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

Diffusion model
Sales forecasting
Prediction
New products
Growth curve
8 Citations

Structuring the decision process: an evaluation of methods

Wright, G. & Goodwin, P. 2013 The Oxford Handbook of Organizational Decision Making. Starbuck, W. H. & Hodgkinson, G. P. (eds.). Oxford, U. K.: Oxford University Press, p. 534-551 (Oxford Handbooks in Business and Management)

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter

11 Citations

The use of analogies in forecasting the annual sales of new electronics products

Goodwin, P., Dyussekeneva, K. & Meeran, S. Oct 2013 In : IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 24, 4, p. 407-422 16 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access
File
Annual
Analogy
Forecasting
Sales
Electronic equipment
2012
22 Citations

Approaches to displaying information to assist decisions under uncertainty

Kreye, M. E., Goh, Y. M., Newnes, L. B. & Goodwin, P. Dec 2012 In : Omega-International Journal of Management Science. 40, 6, p. 682-692 11 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Open Access
File
Decision under uncertainty
Uncertainty
Costs
Diagrams
Decision maker
4 Citations

Robust testing of the utility-based high-technology product sales forecasting models proposed by Decker and Gnibba-Yukawa

Goodwin, P. & Meeran, S. Dec 2012 In : Journal of Product Innovation Management. 29, S1, p. 211-218 8 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2011

New product sales forecasting: the relative accuracy of statistical, judgemental and combination forecasts

Dyussekeneva, K. Oct 2011 (Unpublished)

Research output: Thesis › Doctoral Thesis

File
Combination forecast
Sales forecasting
New products
Costs
Diffusion model
14 Citations

Restrictiveness and guidance in support systems

Goodwin, P., Fildes, R., Lawrence, M. & Stephens, G. Jun 2011 In : Omega-International Journal of Management Science. 39, 3, p. 242-253 12 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

File
Guidance
Damage
Experiment
Demand forecasting
2010

Business forecasters can gain from the cross-fertilization of IOOB and JDM

Goodwin, P. Dec 2010 In : Industrial and Organizational Psychology: Perspectives on Science and Practice. 3, 4, p. 429-430 2 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

23 Citations

Do forecasts expressed as prediction intervals improve production planning decisions?

Goodwin, P., Onkal, D. & Thomson, M. 16 Aug 2010 In : European Journal of Operational Research. 205, 1, p. 195-201 7 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Prediction Interval
Production Planning
Forecast
Planning
Heuristics
81 Citations

The limits of forecasting methods in anticipating rare events

Goodwin, P. & Wright, G. Mar 2010 In : Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 77, 3, p. 355-368 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2009
5 Citations

Common sense and hard decision analysis: why might they conflict?

Goodwin, P. 2009 In : Management Decision. 47, 3, p. 427-440 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Common sense
Decision analysis
Decision making
Managers
Decision model

Decision Analysis for Management Judgment (4th ed.)

Goodwin, P. & Wright, G. 2009 Chichester, U. K.: Wiley.

Research output: Book/Report › Book

102 Citations

Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method

Wright, G. & Goodwin, P. Oct 2009 In : International Journal of Forecasting. 25, 4, p. 813-825 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Scenario planning
Predictability
Planning
Decision making
Scenario method
139 Citations

Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: An empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning

Fildes, R., Goodwin, P., Lawrence, M. & Nikolopoulos, K. Jan 2009 In : International Journal of Forecasting. 25, 1, p. 3-23 21 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Empirical evaluation
Supply chain planning
Supply chain
Demand forecasting
Optimism
16 Citations

Expectations, use and judgmental adjustment of external financial and economic forecasts: an empirical investigation

Gonul, S., Onkal, D. & Goodwin, P. Jan 2009 In : Journal of Forecasting. 28, 1, p. 19-37 19 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Forecast
Adjustment
Acoustic waves
Economics
Feedback

Reply to Commentaries by Flores, Önkal and Sanders

Fildes, R., Goodwin, P., Lawrence, M. & Nikolopoulos, K. Jan 2009 In : International Journal of Forecasting. 25, 1, p. 32-34 3 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

36 Citations

Teaching scenario planning: lessons from practice in academe and business

Wright, G., Cairns, G. & Goodwin, P. 1 Apr 2009 In : European Journal of Operational Research. 194, 1, p. 323-335 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Teaching
Planning
Scenarios
Industry
Formal methods
60 Citations

The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts

Syntetos, A. A., Nikolopoulos, K., Boylan, J. E., Fildes, R. & Goodwin, P. Mar 2009 In : International Journal of Production Economics. 118, 1, p. 72-81 10 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Inventory control
Sales
Industry
Drug products
Marketing
36 Citations

The relative influence of advice from human experts and statistical methods on forecast adjustments

Onkal, D., Goodwin, P., Thomson, M., Gonul, S. & Pollock, A. Oct 2009 In : Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. 22, 4, p. 390-409 20 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

statistical method
expert
Calibration
Statistical methods
Statistical Methods
2008

Unscientific forecasts and wise decisions: Commentary on armstrong, green, and soon

Goodwin, P. Sep 2008 In : Interfaces. 38, 5, p. 400-402 3 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2007
69 Citations

Against your better judgment? How organizations can improve their use of management judgment in forecasting

Fildes, R. & Goodwin, P. 1 Nov 2007 In : Interfaces. 37, 6, p. 570-576

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

49 Citations

Forecasting with cue information: a comparison of multiple regression with alternative forecasting approaches

Nikolopoulos, K., Goodwin, P., Patelis, A. & Assimakopoulos, V. 2007 In : European Journal of Operational Research. 180, 1, p. 354-368 15 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2 Citations

Judgement in forecasting

Parackal, M., Goodwin, P. & O'Connor, M. Jul 2007 In : International Journal of Forecasting. 23, 3, p. 343-345 3 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

39 Citations

Providing support for the use of analogies in demand forecasting tasks

Lee, W. Y., Goodwin, P., Fildes, R., Nikolopoulos, K. & Lawrence, M. 2007 In : International Journal of Forecasting. 23, 3, p. 377-390 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

5 Citations

Should we be using significance tests in forecasting research?

Goodwin, P. 2007 In : International Journal of Forecasting. 23, 2, p. 333-334 2 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

The ombudsman: forecasting conflict resolution: is it worth asking an expert?

Goodwin, P. May 2007 In : Interfaces. 37, 3, p. 285-286 2 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

15 Citations

The process of using a forecasting support system

Goodwin, P., Fildes, R., Lawrence, M. & Nikolopoulos, K. 2007 In : International Journal of Forecasting. 23, 3, p. 391-404 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2006
189 Citations

Judgmental forecasting: a review of progress over the last 25 years

Lawrence, M., Goodwin, P., O'Connor, M. & Onkal, D. 2006 In : International Journal of Forecasting. 22, 3, p. 493-518 26 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

55 Citations

The design features of forecasting support systems and their effectiveness

Fildes, R., Goodwin, P. & Lawrence, M. 2006 In : Decision Support Systems. 42, 1, p. 351-361 11 p.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

2 Citations

Why do companies not produce better forecasts overtime? An organisational learning approach

Nikolopoulos, K., Stafylarakis, M., Goodwin, P. & Fildes, R. 2006 nformation Control Problems in Manufacturing 2006: A Proceedings Volume from the 12th IFAC Conference, 17-19 May 2006, Saint-Etienne, France, Volume 1. Laxenburg: IFAC Secretariat, Vol. 12, p. 165-170 (IFAC Proceedings)

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter

Organizational learning
Overtime
Forecasting support system
Pharmaceuticals
Forecasting practice
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