Fotios Petropoulos

Search results

• 2023

  Forecast selection and representativeness

  Petropoulos, F. & Siemsen, E., 31 May 2023, In: Management Science. 69, 5, p. 2672-2690 19 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Model Selection 100%
  • Cross-validation 26%
  • Statistical Model 22%
  • Forecast Performance 21%
  • Information Criterion 20%
  3 Citations (SciVal)

  200 Downloads (Pure)

• Large Language Models: Their success and impact

  Makridakis, S., Petropoulos, F. & Kang, Y., 25 Aug 2023, (E-pub ahead of print) In: Forecasting. 5, 3, p. 536-549 16 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Language Model 100%
  • Forecasting 71%
  • Correctness 42%
  • Language 34%
  • Natural Language 26%

• Model combinations through revised base-rates

  Petropoulos, F., Spiliotis, E. & Panagiotelis, A., 31 Jul 2023, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 39, 3, p. 1477-1492

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • ARMA Model 100%
  • Contingency Table 78%
  • Model Selection 74%
  • Statistical Model 68%
  • Exponential Smoothing 60%
  1 Citation (SciVal)

• On the disagreement of forecasting model selection criteria

  Spiliotis, E., Petropoulos, F. & Assimakopoulos, V., 20 Jun 2023, In: Forecasting. 5, 2, p. 487-498 12 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Model Selection Criteria 100%
  • Forecasting 83%
  • Model 24%
  • Cross-validation 23%
  • Overfitting 20%
  3 Downloads (Pure)

• On the update frequency of univariate forecasting models

  Spiliotis, E. & Petropoulos, F., 30 Aug 2023, (Acceptance date) In: European Journal of Operational Research.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

• Operational Research: Methods and Applications

  Petropoulos, F., Laporte, G., Aktas, E., Alumur, S. A., Archetti, C., Ayhan, H., Battarra, M., Bennell, J. A., Bourjolly, J-M., Boylan, J. E., Breton, M., Canca, D., Charlin, L., Chen, B., Cicek, C. T., Jr, L. A. C., Currie, C. S. M., Demeulemeester, E., Ding, L., Disney, S. M., & 62 othersEhrgott, M., Eppler, M. J., Erdoğan, G., Fortz, B., Franco, L. A., Frische, J., Greco, S., Gregory, A. J., Hämäläinen, R. P., Herroelen, W., Hewitt, M., Holmström, J., Hooker, J. N., Işık, T., Johnes, J., Kara, B. Y., Karsu, Ö., Kent, K., Köhler, C., Kunc, M., Kuo, Y-H., Letchford, A. N., Leung, J., Li, D., Li, H., Lienert, J., Ljubić, I., Lodi, A., Lozano, S., Lurkin, V., Martello, S., McHale, I. G., Midgley, G., Morecroft, J. D. W., Mutha, A., Oğuz, C., Petrovic, S., Pferschy, U., Psaraftis, H. N., Rose, S., Saarinen, L., Salhi, S., Song, J-S., Sotiros, D., Stecke, K. E., Strauss, A. K., Tarhan, İ., Thielen, C., Toth, P., Berghe, G. V., Vasilakis, C., Vaze, V., Vigo, D., Virtanen, K., Wang, X., Weron, R., White, L., Woensel, T. V., Yearworth, M., Yıldırım, E. A., Zaccour, G. & Zhao, X., 26 Aug 2023, (Acceptance date) In: Journal of the Operational Research Society.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  • Research Methods 100%
  • Operations Research 97%
  • Earthquakes 30%
  • Students 25%
  • Pain 25%
• 2022

  A disaster response model driven by spatial-temporal forecasts

  Nikolopoulos, K., Petropoulos, F., Sanchez Rodrigues, V., Pettit, S. & Beresford, A., 1 Jul 2022, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 38, 3, p. 1214-1220 7 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Disaster Response 100%
  • Time Windows 26%
  • Preparedness 26%
  • Responsiveness 26%
  • Earthquake 24%
  2 Citations (SciVal)

  13 Downloads (Pure)

• COVID-19: Forecasting confirmed cases and deaths with a simple time-series model

  Petropoulos, F., Makridakis, S. & Stylianou, N., 1 Apr 2022, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 38, 2, p. 439-452 14 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Time Series Models 100%
  • Policy Implementation 37%
  • Uncertainty 37%
  • Modeling 36%
  • Forecast Accuracy 35%
  25 Citations (SciVal)

  9 Downloads (Pure)

• Feature-based intermittent demand forecast combinations: accuracy and inventory implications

  Li, L., Kang, Y., Petropoulos, F. & Li, F., 15 Dec 2022, (E-pub ahead of print) In: International Journal of Production Research.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  • Intermittent Demand 100%
  • Forecast Combination 91%
  • Demand Forecast 74%
  • Demand Forecasting 54%
  • Point Forecasts 22%
  2 Citations (SciVal)

• ​Forecast with Forecasts: Diversity Matters

  Kang, Y., Cao, W., Petropoulos, F. & Li, F., 16 Aug 2022, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 301, 1, p. 180-190 11 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  • Forecast Combination 100%
  • Forecast 59%
  • Forecasting 57%
  • Historical Data 34%
  • Time series 22%
  7 Citations (SciVal)

• On the selection of forecasting accuracy measures

  Koutsandreas, D., Spiliotis, E., Petropoulos, F. & Assimakopoulos, V., 31 Dec 2022, In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 73, 5, p. 937-954 18 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Forecasting Accuracy 100%
  • Forecasting 99%
  • Loss Function 98%
  • Forecasting Method 95%
  • Point Forecasts 59%
  19 Citations (SciVal)

  190 Downloads (Pure)

• Representativeness: A new criterion for selecting forecasts

  Petropoulos, F. & Siemsen, E., 31 Dec 2022, In: Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 2022, 65, p. 5-12 8 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  • Air 100%

• The future of forecasting competitions: Design attributes and principles

  Makridakis, S., Fry, C., Petropoulos, F. & Spiliotis, E., 30 Apr 2022, In: INFORMS Journal on Data Science. 1, 1, p. 96-113 18 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Uncertainty 100%
  • Costs 60%
  6 Downloads (Pure)

• The uncertainty estimation of feature-based forecast combinations

  Wang, X., Kang, Y., Petropoulos, F. & Li, F., 31 Dec 2022, In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 73, 5, p. 979-993 15 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Forecast Combination 100%
  • Uncertainty Estimation 83%
  • Forecast 59%
  • Time series 44%
  • Forecasting 38%
  4 Citations (SciVal)

  16 Downloads (Pure)
• 2021

  Beyond Error Measures to the Utility And Cost of the Forecasts

  Yardley, L. & Petropoulos, F., 31 Dec 2021, In: Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 63, p. 36-45 10 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • forecast 100%
  • cost 73%
  • decision making 17%
  • evaluation 11%
  • method 10%
  152 Downloads (Pure)

• Déjà vu: A data-centric forecasting approach through time series cross-similarity

  Kang, Y., Spiliotis, E., Petropoulos, F., Athiniotis, N., Li, F. & Assimakopoulos, V., 31 Aug 2021, In: Journal of Business Research. 132, p. 719-731

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Statistical Model 100%
  • Self-similarity 53%
  • Prediction Interval 51%
  • Point Forecasts 48%
  • Model Uncertainty 42%
  8 Citations (SciVal)

  19 Downloads (Pure)

• Hierarchical forecast reconciliation with machine learning

  Spiliotis, E., Abolghasemi, M., Hyndman, R. J., Petropoulos, F. & Assimakopoulos, V., 30 Nov 2021, In: Applied Soft Computing. 112, 107756.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Machine learning 100%
  • Tourism industry 51%
  • Decision making 24%
  • Industry 14%
  12 Citations (SciVal)

  13 Downloads (Pure)

• The wisdom of the data: Getting the most out of univariate time-series forecasting

  Petropoulos, F. & Spiliotis, E., 23 Jun 2021, In: Forecasting. 3, 3, p. 478-497 10 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access
  11 Citations (SciVal)

• Understanding forecast reconciliation

  Hollyman, R., Petropoulos, F. & Tipping, M., 1 Oct 2021, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 294, 1, p. 149-160 12 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Reconciliation 100%
  • Forecast 80%
  • Time series 58%
  • Agglomeration 29%
  • Linear Constraints 13%
  25 Citations (SciVal)

  57 Downloads (Pure)
• 2020

  A Simple Combination of Univariate Models

  Petropoulos, F. & Svetunkov, I., 1 Jan 2020, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 36, 1, p. 110-115 6 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Point Forecasts 100%
  • Prediction Interval 78%
  • Exponential Smoothing 45%
  • Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average 23%
  • Median 17%
  36 Citations (SciVal)

  36 Downloads (Pure)

• Cross-temporal aggregation: Improving the forecast accuracy of hierarchical electricity consumption

  Spiliotis, E., Petropoulos, F., Kourentzes, N. & Assimakopoulos, V., 1 Mar 2020, In: Applied Energy. 261, 114339.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • electricity consumption 100%
  • Agglomeration 67%
  • Electricity 57%
  • forecast 55%
  • forecasting 40%
  39 Citations (SciVal)

  18 Downloads (Pure)

• Forecasting in social settings: the state of the art

  Makridakis, S., Hyndman, R. J. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Jan 2020, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 36, 1, p. 15-28 14 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  • Prediction 100%
  • Machine Learning 80%
  • Causal Inference 78%
  • Learning Methods 75%
  • Fat Tails 75%
  63 Citations (SciVal)

• Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19

  Petropoulos, F. & Makridakis, S., 31 Mar 2020, In: PLoS ONE. 15, 3, 8 p., e0231236.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • psychosocial factors 100%
  • Coronavirinae 88%
  • pandemic 86%
  • Coronavirus 84%
  • fearfulness 75%
  358 Citations (SciVal)

  121 Downloads (Pure)

• The Impact of Imperfect Weather Forecasts on Wind Power Forecasting Performance: Evidence from Two Wind Farms in Greece

  Spiliotis, E., Petropoulos, F. & Nikolopoulos, K., 12 Apr 2020, In: Energies. 13, 8, p. 1-18 18 p., 1880.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Wind Power 100%
  • Greece 85%
  • Weather 74%
  • Forecast 64%
  • Forecasting 61%
  5 Citations (SciVal)

  24 Downloads (Pure)
• 2019

  Another look at forecast selection and combination: evidence from forecast pooling

  Kourentzes, N., Barrow, D. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Mar 2019, In: International Journal of Production Economics. 209, p. 226-235 10 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Pooling 100%
  • Uncertainty 57%
  • Uncertainty Modeling 16%
  • Forecast Combination 15%
  • Decision Modeling 15%
  66 Citations (SciVal)

  181 Downloads (Pure)

• Brain imaging and forecasting: Insights from judgmental model selection

  Han, W., Wang, X., Petropoulos, F. & Wang, J., 30 Sept 2019, In: Omega: The International Journal of Management Science. 87, p. 1-9 9 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Brain Imaging 100%
  • Model Selection 92%
  • Judgmental Forecasting 65%
  • Cognitive Load 60%
  • Forecasting Accuracy 23%
  11 Citations (SciVal)

  34 Downloads (Pure)

• Improving the forecasting performance of temporal hierarchies

  Spiliotis, E., Petropoulos, F. & Assimakopoulos, V., 3 Oct 2019, In: PLoS ONE. 14, 10, 21 p., e0223422.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • shrinkage 100%
  • planning 95%
  • complement 85%
  • methodology 81%
  20 Citations (SciVal)

  92 Downloads (Pure)

• Judgmental model selection

  Petropoulos, F., 2019, In: Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 2019, 54, p. 4-10 7 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Model Selection 100%
  • Forecast Performance 42%
  • Forecast Accuracy 36%
  • Acceptance 26%
  98 Downloads (Pure)

• Probabilistic forecast reconciliation with applications to wind power and electric load

  Jeon, J., Panagiotelis, A. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Dec 2019, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 279, 2, p. 364-379 16 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Wind Power 100%
  • Reconciliation 79%
  • Electric loads 70%
  • Forecast 64%
  • Farms 52%
  45 Citations (SciVal)

  19 Downloads (Pure)

• The inventory performance of forecasting methods: evidence from the M3-competition data

  Petropoulos, F., Wang, X. & Disney, S. M., 1 Jan 2019, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 35, 1, p. 251-265 15 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Forecasting Method 100%
  • Holt-Winters Method 38%
  • Forecasting Competitions 36%
  • Performance 34%
  • Order-up-to Policy 34%
  34 Citations (SciVal)

  31 Downloads (Pure)
• 2018

  Exploring the sources of uncertainty: why does bagging for time series forecasting work?

  Petropoulos, F., Hyndman, R. J. & Bergmeir, C., 16 Jul 2018, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 268, 2, p. 545-554 10 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Bagging 100%
  • Time Series Forecasting 97%
  • Time series 53%
  • Uncertainty 52%
  • Exponential Smoothing 38%
  88 Citations (SciVal)

  280 Downloads (Pure)

• Forecasting for big data: does suboptimality matter?

  Nikolopoulos, K. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Oct 2018, In: Computers and Operations Research. 98, p. 322-329 8 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Forecasting 100%
  • Big Data 86%
  • Big data 78%
  • Fruit 66%
  • Set theory 56%
  27 Citations (SciVal)

  252 Downloads (Pure)

• Judgmental Selection of Forecasting Models

  Petropoulos, F., Kourentzes, N., Nikolopoulos, K. & Siemsen, E., 31 May 2018, In: Journal of Operations Management. 60, 1, p. 34-46 13 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Model Selection 100%
  • Seasonality 48%
  • Information Criterion 40%
  • Choice Sets 37%
  • Efficacy 31%
  74 Citations (SciVal)

  232 Downloads (Pure)

• Old dog, new tricks: a modelling view of simple moving averages

  Svetunkov, I. & Petropoulos, F., 2018, In: International Journal of Production Research. 56, 18, p. 6034-6047 14 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  • Moving Average 100%
  • Dog 82%
  • Statistical Model 81%
  • Forecasting Method 64%
  • Statistical Models 53%
  30 Citations (SciVal)

• On reconciling macro and micro energy transport forecasts for strategic decision making in the tanker industry

  Abouarghoub, W., Nomikos, N. & Petropoulos, F., 1 May 2018, In: Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review. 113, p. 225-238 14 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • shipping 100%
  • Strategic Decision Making 94%
  • Freight 91%
  • Macros 81%
  • Energy 69%
  14 Citations (SciVal)

  60 Downloads (Pure)
• 2017

  A note on upper bounds for forecast-value-added relative to naive forecasts

  Goodwin, P., Petropoulos, F. & Hyndman, R. J., Sept 2017, In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 68, 9, p. 1082-1084

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Forecast 100%
  • Upper Bound 86%
  • Value Added 73%
  • Forecasting 64%
  • Forecasting Method 61%
  6 Citations (SciVal)

  252 Downloads (Pure)

• Forecasting methods tutorial: The Theta Method

  Petropoulos, F. & Nikolopoulos, K., 2017, In: Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 45, p. 11-17

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

• Forecasting with Temporal Hierarchies

  Athanasopoulos, G., Hyndman, R. J., Kourentzes, N. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Oct 2017, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 262, 1, p. 60-74 15 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Forecast 100%
  • Forecasting 96%
  • Hierarchy 70%
  • Uncertainty Modeling 51%
  • Strategic Planning 32%
  137 Citations (SciVal)

  184 Downloads (Pure)

• Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge

  Petropoulos, F., Goodwin, P. & Fildes, R., Jan 2017, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 33, 1, p. 314-324 11 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Extrapolation 100%
  • Knowledge Elicitation 40%
  • Expert Knowledge 37%
  • Performance Feedback 35%
  • Systems Software 31%
  13 Citations (SciVal)

  141 Downloads (Pure)
• 2016

  Another look at estimators for intermittent demand

  Petropoulos, F., Kourentzes, N. & Nikolopoulos, K., Nov 2016, In: International Journal of Production Economics. 181, Part A, p. 154-161

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File
  30 Citations (SciVal)

  161 Downloads (Pure)

• Do 'big losses' in judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts affect experts' behaviour

  Petropoulos, F., Fildes, R. & Goodwin, P., 16 Mar 2016, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 249, 3, p. 842-852 11 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  • Forecast 100%
  • Adjustment 84%
  • Forecasting 48%
  • Forecasting Support System 35%
  • Overshooting 28%
  48 Citations (SciVal)

  65 Downloads (Pure)

• Forecasting with multivariate temporal aggregation: the case of promotional modelling

  Kourentzes, N. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Nov 2016, In: International Journal of Production Economics. 181, Part A, p. 145-153 9 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  • Temporal Aggregation 100%
  • Agglomeration 60%
  • Exponential Smoothing 43%
  • Prediction 42%
  • Modeling 40%
  76 Citations (SciVal)

  90 Downloads (Pure)

• Models for optimising the theta method and their relationship to state space models

  Fioruci, J. A., Pellegrini, T. R., Louzada, F., Petropoulos, F. & Koehler, A. B., Oct 2016, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 32, 4, p. 1151-1161 11 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File
  35 Citations (SciVal)

  457 Downloads (Pure)

• To select or to combine? The inventory performance of model and expert forecasts

  Wang, X. & Petropoulos, F., 2016, In: International Journal of Production Research. 54, 17, p. 5271-5282 12 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File
  34 Citations (SciVal)

  171 Downloads (Pure)
• 2015

  Amplifying the learning effect via a Forecasting and Foresight Support System

  Spithourakis, G., Petropoulos, F., Nikolopoulos, K. & Assimakopoulos, V., 2015, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 31, 1, p. 20-32 13 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File
  10 Citations (SciVal)

  159 Downloads (Pure)

• Forecasting Support Systems: ways forward

  Petropoulos, F., 2015, In: Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 39, p. 5-11

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

• Forecasts combinations for intermittent demand

  Petropoulos, F. & Kourentzes, N., 2015, In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 66, 6, p. 914-924 11 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Forecast Combination 100%
  • Intermittent Demand 76%
  • Demand 49%
  • Combination of Forecasts 36%
  • Forecasting 32%
  78 Citations (SciVal)

  183 Downloads (Pure)

• Improving forecast quality in practice

  Fildes, R. & Petropoulos, F., 2015, In: Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 36, p. 5-12

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

• Is there a Golden Rule?

  Fildes, R. & Petropoulos, F., 2015, In: Journal of Business Research. 68, 8, p. 1742-1745 4 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File
  5 Citations (SciVal)

  143 Downloads (Pure)

• Relative performance of methods for forecasting Unique Events

  Nikolopoulos, K., Litsa, A., Petropoulos, F., Bougioukos, V. & Khammash, M., 2015, In: Journal of Business Research. 68, 8, p. 1785-1791 7 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File
  18 Citations (SciVal)

  212 Downloads (Pure)