Fotios Petropoulos

Search results

• 2022

  COVID-19: Forecasting confirmed cases and deaths with a simple time-series model

  Petropoulos, F., Makridakis, S. & Stylianou, N., 1 Apr 2022, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 38, 2, p. 439-452

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  • Time Series Models 100%
  • Policy Implementation 37%
  • Uncertainty 37%
  • Modeling 36%
  • Forecast Accuracy 35%
  6 Citations (SciVal)

• Forecasting: theory and practice

  Petropoulos, F., Apiletti, D., Assimakopoulos, V., Babai, M. Z., Barrow, D. K., Ben Taieb, S., Bergmeir, C., Bessa, R. J., Bijak, J., Boylan, J. E., Browell, J., Carnevale, C., Castle, J. L., Cirillo, P., Clements, M. P., Cordeiro, C., Cyrino Oliveira, F. L., De Baets, S., Dokumentov, A., Ellison, J. & 60 others, Fiszeder, P., Franses, P. H., Frazier, D. T., Gilliland, M., Gönül, M. S., Goodwin, P., Grossi, L., Grushka-Cockayne, Y., Guidolin, M., Guidolin, M., Gunter, U., Guo, X., Guseo, R., Harvey, N., Hendry, D. F., Hollyman, R., Januschowski, T., Jeon, J., Jose, V. R. R., Kang, Y., Koehler, A. B., Kolassa, S., Kourentzes, N., Leva, S., Li, F., Litsiou, K., Makridakis, S., Martin, G. M., Martinez, A. B., Meeran, S., Modis, T., Nikolopoulos, K., Önkal, D., Paccagnini, A., Panagiotelis, A., Panapakidis, I., Pavía, J. M., Pedio, M., Pedregal, D. J., Pinson, P., Ramos, P., Rapach, D. E., Reade, J. J., Rostami-Tabar, B., Rubaszek, M., Sermpinis, G., Shang, H. L., Spiliotis, E., Syntetos, A. A., Talagala, P. D., Talagala, T. S., Tashman, L., Thomakos, D., Thorarinsdottir, T., Todini, E., Trapero Arenas, J. R., Wang, X., Winkler, R. L., Yusupova, A. & Ziel, F., 20 Jan 2022, (E-pub ahead of print) In: International Journal of Forecasting.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

  Open Access

  • Forecasting Method 100%
  • Open Source Software 98%
  • Data Base 82%
  • Decision Making 79%
  • Planning 74%

• Forecast selection and representativeness

  Petropoulos, F. & Siemsen, E., 18 Jan 2022, (Acceptance date) In: Management Science.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

• Improving forecasting by subsampling seasonal time series

  Li, X., Petropoulos, F. & Kang, Y., 17 Jan 2022, (E-pub ahead of print) In: International Journal of Production Research.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  • Seasonal Time Series 100%
  • Subsampling 94%
  • Time series 54%
  • Performance Improvement 42%
  • Forecasting Competitions 33%

• Introduction to the M5 forecasting competition Special Issue

  Makridakis, S., Petropoulos, F. & Spiliotis, E., 12 Apr 2022, (Acceptance date) In: International Journal of Forecasting.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Editorial › peer-review

  Open Access

• Representativeness: A new criterion for selecting forecasts

  Petropoulos, F. & Siemsen, E., 28 Jan 2022, (Acceptance date) In: Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 2022, 65, p. 5-12

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

• The M5 competition: Conclusions

  Makridakis, S., Petropoulos, F. & Spiliotis, E., 12 Apr 2022, (Acceptance date) In: International Journal of Forecasting.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Editorial › peer-review
• 2021

  Beyond Error Measures to the Utility And Cost of the Forecasts

  Yardley, L. & Petropoulos, F., 31 Dec 2021, In: Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 63, p. 36-45 10 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File
  78 Downloads (Pure)

• Déjà vu: A data-centric forecasting approach through time series cross-similarity

  Kang, Y., Spiliotis, E., Petropoulos, F., Athiniotis, N., Li, F. & Assimakopoulos, V., 31 Aug 2021, In: Journal of Business Research. 132, p. 719-731

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Statistical Model 100%
  • Self-similarity 53%
  • Prediction Interval 51%
  • Point Forecasts 48%
  • Model Uncertainty 42%
  6 Downloads (Pure)

• Forecasting in social settings: the state of the art

  Makridakis, S., Hyndman, R. J. & Petropoulos, F., 31 Jul 2021, Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Gilliland, M., Tashman, L. & Sglavo, U. (eds.). Wiley, (Wiley and SAS Business Series).

  Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter

  File
  16 Downloads (Pure)

• ​Forecast with Forecasts: Diversity Matters

  Kang, Y., Cao, W., Petropoulos, F. & Li, F., 16 Aug 2022, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 301, 1, p. 180-190

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  • Forecast Combination 100%
  • Forecast 59%
  • Forecasting 57%
  • Historical Data 34%
  • Time series 22%

• Foreword

  Makridakis, S. & Petropoulos, F., May 2021, Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Gilliland, M., Tashman, L. & Sglavo, U. (eds.). Wiley, p. ix-xii (Wiley and SAS Business Series).

  Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Foreword/postscript

• Hierarchical forecast reconciliation with machine learning

  Spiliotis, E., Abolghasemi, M., Hyndman, R. J., Petropoulos, F. & Assimakopoulos, V., 30 Nov 2021, In: Applied Soft Computing. 112, 107756.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  • Machine learning 100%
  • Tourism industry 51%
  • Decision making 24%
  • Industry 14%

• Judgmental model selection

  Petropoulos, F., May 2021, Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Gilliland, M., Tashman, L. & Sglavo, U. (eds.). Wiley, (Wiley and SAS Business Series).

  Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter

• On the selection of forecasting accuracy measures

  Koutsandreas, D., Spiliotis, E., Petropoulos, F. & Assimakopoulos, V., 13 Apr 2021, (E-pub ahead of print) In: Journal of the Operational Research Society.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Forecasting Accuracy 100%
  • Forecasting 99%
  • Loss Function 98%
  • Forecasting Method 95%
  • Point Forecasts 59%
  1 Citation (SciVal)

  1 Downloads (Pure)

• The future of forecasting competitions: Design attributes and principles

  Makridakis, S., Fry, C., Petropoulos, F. & Spiliotis, E., 12 Nov 2021, (E-pub ahead of print) In: INFORMS Journal on Data Science.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

• The uncertainty estimation of feature-based forecast combinations

  Wang, X., Kang, Y., Petropoulos, F. & Li, F., 8 Mar 2021, (E-pub ahead of print) In: Journal of the Operational Research Society.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Forecast Combination 100%
  • Uncertainty Estimation 83%
  • Forecast 59%
  • Time series 44%
  • Forecasting 38%

• The wisdom of the data: Getting the most out of univariate time-series forecasting

  Petropoulos, F. & Spiliotis, E., 23 Jun 2021, In: Forecasting. 3, 3, p. 478-497 10 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

• Understanding forecast reconciliation

  Hollyman, R., Petropoulos, F. & Tipping, M., 1 Oct 2021, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 294, 1, p. 149-160 12 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  • Reconciliation 100%
  • Forecast 80%
  • Time series 58%
  • Agglomeration 29%
  • Linear Constraints 13%
  1 Citation (SciVal)
• 2020

  A disaster response model driven by spatial-temporal forecasts

  Nikolopoulos, K., Petropoulos, F., Sanchez Rodrigues, V., Pettit, S. & Beresford, A., 14 Feb 2020, (E-pub ahead of print) In: International Journal of Forecasting.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Disaster Response 100%
  • Time Windows 26%
  • Preparedness 26%
  • Responsiveness 26%
  • Earthquake 24%
  2 Citations (SciVal)

  2 Downloads (Pure)

• A Simple Combination of Univariate Models

  Petropoulos, F. & Svetunkov, I., 1 Jan 2020, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 36, 1, p. 110-115 6 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Point Forecasts 100%
  • Prediction Interval 78%
  • Exponential Smoothing 45%
  • Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average 23%
  • Median 17%
  10 Citations (SciVal)

  14 Downloads (Pure)

• Cross-temporal aggregation: Improving the forecast accuracy of hierarchical electricity consumption

  Spiliotis, E., Petropoulos, F., Kourentzes, N. & Assimakopoulos, V., 1 Mar 2020, In: Applied Energy. 261, 114339.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • electricity consumption 100%
  • Agglomeration 67%
  • Electricity 57%
  • forecast 55%
  • forecasting 40%
  12 Citations (SciVal)

  10 Downloads (Pure)

• Forecasting in social settings: the state of the art

  Makridakis, S., Hyndman, R. J. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Jan 2020, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 36, 1, p. 15-28 14 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  • Prediction 100%
  • Machine Learning 80%
  • Causal Inference 78%
  • Learning Methods 75%
  • Fat Tails 75%
  24 Citations (SciVal)

• Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19

  Petropoulos, F. & Makridakis, S., 31 Mar 2020, In: PLoS ONE. 15, 3, 8 p., e0231236.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • psychosocial factors 100%
  • Coronavirinae 88%
  • pandemic 86%
  • Coronavirus 84%
  • fearfulness 75%
  188 Citations (SciVal)

  93 Downloads (Pure)

• Forecasting week-ahead hourly electricity prices in Belgium with statistical and Machine Learning methods

  Spiliotis, E., Doukas, H., Assimakopoulos, V. & Petropoulos, F., 2020, (Acceptance date) Mathematical Modelling of Contemporary Electricity Markets: New challenges and methodologies. Dagoumas, A. A. (ed.). Elsevier, p. 89 109 p.

  Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter

  • electricity 87%
  • price 81%
  • forecasting 77%
  • forecast 42%
  • energy market 26%

• Last-mile delivery and consumer behaviour in e-commerce: A systematic literature review

  Liu, Y., Giannikas, V., Petropoulos, F. & Lim, S. F. W. T., Sep 2020, p. 36-36. 1 p.

  Research output: Contribution to conference › Abstract › peer-review

  • Literature Review 100%
  • Consumer Behaviour 71%
  • Electronic Commerce 67%
  • Delivery Services 21%
  • Factors 20%

• The Impact of Imperfect Weather Forecasts on Wind Power Forecasting Performance: Evidence from Two Wind Farms in Greece

  Spiliotis, E., Petropoulos, F. & Nikolopoulos, K., 12 Apr 2020, In: Energies. 13, 8, p. 1-18 18 p., 1880.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Wind Power 100%
  • Greece 85%
  • Weather 74%
  • Forecast 64%
  • Forecasting 61%
  3 Citations (SciVal)

  15 Downloads (Pure)

• The M4 competition, and a look to the future

  Petropoulos, F., 25 Mar 2020, In: Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 57, p. 11-12 2 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Comment/debate › peer-review

  Open Access

  File
  30 Downloads (Pure)

• The M4 competition: Bigger. Stronger. Better.

  Petropoulos, F. & Makridakis, S., 1 Jan 2020, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 36, 1, p. 3-6 4 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Editorial › peer-review

  Open Access

  File
  4 Citations (SciVal)

  6 Downloads (Pure)

• The M4 competition: Conclusions

  Makridakis, S. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Jan 2020, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 36, 1, p. 224-227 4 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Editorial › peer-review

  Open Access

  File
  2 Citations (SciVal)

  21 Downloads (Pure)
• 2019

  Another look at forecast selection and combination: evidence from forecast pooling

  Kourentzes, N., Barrow, D. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Mar 2019, In: International Journal of Production Economics. 209, p. 226-235 10 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Pooling 100%
  • Uncertainty 57%
  • Uncertainty Modeling 16%
  • Forecast Combination 15%
  • Decision Modeling 15%
  27 Citations (SciVal)

  164 Downloads (Pure)

• Brain imaging and forecasting: Insights from judgmental model selection

  Han, W., Wang, X., Petropoulos, F. & Wang, J., 30 Sep 2019, In: Omega: The International Journal of Management Science. 87, p. 1-9 9 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Brain Imaging 100%
  • Model Selection 92%
  • Judgmental Forecasting 65%
  • Cognitive Load 60%
  • Forecasting Accuracy 23%
  6 Citations (SciVal)

  23 Downloads (Pure)

• Forecasting for food demand

  Petropoulos, F. & Carver, S., 2019, (Acceptance date) Sustainable Food Supply Chains. Accorsi, R. & Manzini, R. (eds.). Elsevier

  Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter

  File

  • Food supply 100%
  • Supply chains 64%
  • Sustainable development 57%
  • Decision making 47%
  126 Downloads (Pure)

• Improving the forecasting performance of temporal hierarchies

  Spiliotis, E., Petropoulos, F. & Assimakopoulos, V., 3 Oct 2019, In: PLoS ONE. 14, 10, 21 p., e0223422.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • shrinkage 100%
  • planning 95%
  • methodology 81%
  2 Citations (SciVal)

  51 Downloads (Pure)

• Judgmental model selection

  Petropoulos, F., 2019, In: Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 2019, 54, p. 4-10 7 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Model Selection 100%
  • Forecast Performance 42%
  • Forecast Accuracy 36%
  • Acceptance 26%
  82 Downloads (Pure)

• Probabilistic forecast reconciliation with applications to wind power and electric load

  Jeon, J., Panagiotelis, A. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Dec 2019, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 279, 2, p. 364-379 16 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Wind Power 100%
  • Reconciliation 79%
  • Electric loads 70%
  • Forecast 64%
  • Farms 52%
  14 Citations (SciVal)

• Supporting national planning through improved forecasting of demand for health services

  Vasilakis, C., Petropoulos, F. & Cruze, V., 31 Dec 2019.

  Research output: Contribution to conference › Abstract › peer-review

• The inventory performance of forecasting methods: evidence from the M3-competition data

  Petropoulos, F., Wang, X. & Disney, S. M., 1 Jan 2019, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 35, 1, p. 251-265 15 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Forecasting Method 100%
  • Holt-Winters Method 38%
  • Forecasting Competitions 36%
  • Performance 34%
  • Order-up-to Policy 34%
  18 Citations (SciVal)

  18 Downloads (Pure)

• θ-Reflections from the Next Generation of Forecasters

  Petropoulos, F., 2019, (Acceptance date) Forecasting With The Theta Method: Theory and Applications. Nikolopoulos, K. & Thomakos, D. D. (eds.). Wiley, p. 163-176

  Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter

  File
  199 Downloads (Pure)
• 2018

  Exploring the sources of uncertainty: why does bagging for time series forecasting work?

  Petropoulos, F., Hyndman, R. J. & Bergmeir, C., 16 Jul 2018, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 268, 2, p. 545-554 10 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Bagging 100%
  • Time Series Forecasting 97%
  • Time series 53%
  • Uncertainty 52%
  • Exponential Smoothing 38%
  31 Citations (SciVal)

  158 Downloads (Pure)

• forecast: Forecasting functions for time series and linear models

  Hyndman, R. J., Athanasopoulos, G., Bergmeir, C., Caceres, G., Chhay, L., O'Hara-Wild, M., Petropoulos, F., Razbash, S., Wang, E. & Yasmeen, F., 11 Apr 2018

  Research output: Non-textual form › Software

• Forecasting for big data: does suboptimality matter?

  Nikolopoulos, K. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Oct 2018, In: Computers and Operations Research. 98, p. 322-329 8 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Forecasting 100%
  • Big Data 86%
  • Big data 78%
  • Fruit 66%
  • Set theory 56%
  17 Citations (SciVal)

  204 Downloads (Pure)

• Judgmental Selection of Forecasting Models

  Petropoulos, F., Kourentzes, N., Nikolopoulos, K. & Siemsen, E., 31 May 2018, In: Journal of Operations Management. 60, 1, p. 34-46 13 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Model Selection 100%
  • Seasonality 48%
  • Information Criterion 40%
  • Choice Sets 37%
  • Efficacy 31%
  38 Citations (SciVal)

  190 Downloads (Pure)

• Old dog, new tricks: a modelling view of simple moving averages

  Svetunkov, I. & Petropoulos, F., 2018, In: International Journal of Production Research. 56, 18, p. 6034-6047 14 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  • Moving Average 100%
  • Dog 82%
  • Statistical Model 81%
  • Forecasting Method 64%
  • Statistical Models 53%
  8 Citations (SciVal)

• On reconciling macro and micro energy transport forecasts for strategic decision making in the tanker industry

  Abouarghoub, W., Nomikos, N. & Petropoulos, F., 1 May 2018, In: Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review. 113, p. 225-238 14 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • shipping 100%
  • Strategic Decision Making 94%
  • Freight 91%
  • Macros 81%
  • Energy 69%
  5 Citations (SciVal)

  55 Downloads (Pure)

• "Profit from Your Forecasting Software: A Best-Practice Guide for Sales Forecasters" by Paul Goodwin

  Petropoulos, F., 2018, Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 51, p. 5-7 3 p.

  Research output: Contribution to specialist publication › Book/Film/Article review
• 2017

  A note on upper bounds for forecast-value-added relative to naive forecasts

  Goodwin, P., Petropoulos, F. & Hyndman, R. J., Sep 2017, In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 68, 9, p. 1082-1084

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Forecast 100%
  • Upper Bound 86%
  • Value Added 73%
  • Forecasting 64%
  • Forecasting Method 61%
  2 Citations (SciVal)

  219 Downloads (Pure)

• Forecasting methods tutorial: The Theta Method

  Petropoulos, F. & Nikolopoulos, K., 2017, In: Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 45, p. 11-17

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

• Forecasting with Temporal Hierarchies

  Athanasopoulos, G., Hyndman, R. J., Kourentzes, N. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Oct 2017, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 262, 1, p. 60-74 15 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Forecast 100%
  • Forecasting 96%
  • Hierarchy 70%
  • Uncertainty Modeling 51%
  • Strategic Planning 32%
  75 Citations (SciVal)

  157 Downloads (Pure)

• Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge

  Petropoulos, F., Goodwin, P. & Fildes, R., Jan 2017, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 33, 1, p. 314-324 11 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Extrapolation 100%
  • Knowledge Elicitation 40%
  • Expert Knowledge 37%
  • Performance Feedback 35%
  • Systems Software 31%
  10 Citations (SciVal)

  130 Downloads (Pure)