Fotios Petropoulos

Search results

• 2022

  A disaster response model driven by spatial-temporal forecasts

  Nikolopoulos, K., Petropoulos, F., Sanchez Rodrigues, V., Pettit, S. & Beresford, A., 1 Jul 2022, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 38, 3, p. 1214-1220 7 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Disaster Response 100%
  • Time Windows 26%
  • Preparedness 26%
  • Responsiveness 26%
  • Earthquake 24%
  1 Citation (SciVal)

  6 Downloads (Pure)

• COVID-19: Forecasting confirmed cases and deaths with a simple time-series model

  Petropoulos, F., Makridakis, S. & Stylianou, N., 1 Apr 2022, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 38, 2, p. 439-452 14 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Time Series Models 100%
  • Policy Implementation 37%
  • Uncertainty 37%
  • Modeling 36%
  • Forecast Accuracy 35%
  8 Citations (SciVal)

  4 Downloads (Pure)

• Feature-based intermittent demand forecast combinations: accuracy and inventory implications

  Li, L., Kang, Y., Petropoulos, F. & Li, F., 15 Dec 2022, (E-pub ahead of print) In: International Journal of Production Research.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  • Intermittent Demand 100%
  • Forecast Combination 91%
  • Demand Forecast 74%
  • Demand Forecasting 54%
  • Point Forecasts 22%

• Forecasting: theory and practice

  Petropoulos, F., Apiletti, D., Assimakopoulos, V., Babai, M. Z., Barrow, D. K., Ben Taieb, S., Bergmeir, C., Bessa, R. J., Bijak, J., Boylan, J. E., Browell, J., Carnevale, C., Castle, J. L., Cirillo, P., Clements, M. P., Cordeiro, C., Cyrino Oliveira, F. L., De Baets, S., Dokumentov, A., Ellison, J., & 60 othersFiszeder, P., Franses, P. H., Frazier, D. T., Gilliland, M., Gönül, M. S., Goodwin, P., Grossi, L., Grushka-Cockayne, Y., Guidolin, M., Guidolin, M., Gunter, U., Guo, X., Guseo, R., Harvey, N., Hendry, D. F., Hollyman, R., Januschowski, T., Jeon, J., Jose, V. R. R., Kang, Y., Koehler, A. B., Kolassa, S., Kourentzes, N., Leva, S., Li, F., Litsiou, K., Makridakis, S., Martin, G. M., Martinez, A. B., Meeran, S., Modis, T., Nikolopoulos, K., Önkal, D., Paccagnini, A., Panagiotelis, A., Panapakidis, I., Pavía, J. M., Pedio, M., Pedregal, D. J., Pinson, P., Ramos, P., Rapach, D. E., Reade, J. J., Rostami-Tabar, B., Rubaszek, M., Sermpinis, G., Shang, H. L., Spiliotis, E., Syntetos, A. A., Talagala, P. D., Talagala, T. S., Tashman, L., Thomakos, D., Thorarinsdottir, T., Todini, E., Trapero Arenas, J. R., Wang, X., Winkler, R. L., Yusupova, A. & Ziel, F., 1 Jul 2022, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 38, 3, p. 705-871 167 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

  Open Access

  • Forecasting Method 100%
  • Open Source Software 98%
  • Data Base 82%
  • Decision Making 79%
  • Planning 74%
  11 Citations (SciVal)

• Forecast selection and representativeness

  Petropoulos, F. & Siemsen, E., 18 Jul 2022, (E-pub ahead of print) In: Management Science.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Model Selection 100%
  • Cross-validation 26%
  • Statistical Model 22%
  • Forecast Performance 21%
  • Information Criterion 20%
  73 Downloads (Pure)

• ​Forecast with Forecasts: Diversity Matters

  Kang, Y., Cao, W., Petropoulos, F. & Li, F., 16 Aug 2022, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 301, 1, p. 180-190 11 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  • Forecast Combination 100%
  • Forecast 59%
  • Forecasting 57%
  • Historical Data 34%
  • Time series 22%

• Improving forecasting by subsampling seasonal time series

  Li, X., Petropoulos, F. & Kang, Y., 17 Jan 2022, (E-pub ahead of print) In: International Journal of Production Research.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Seasonal Time Series 100%
  • Subsampling 94%
  • Time series 54%
  • Performance Improvement 42%
  • Forecasting Competitions 33%
  1 Downloads (Pure)

• Introduction to the M5 forecasting competition Special Issue

  Makridakis, S., Petropoulos, F. & Spiliotis, E., 10 Oct 2022, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 38, 4, p. 1279-1282

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Editorial › peer-review

  • Forecasting Competitions 100%
  • M-Competition 78%
  • Point Forecasts 57%
  • Retail 47%
  • Uncertainty 37%

• Judgmental interventions and behavioural change

  Petropoulos, F. & Nikolopoulos, K., Jun 2022, (Acceptance date) Judgment in Predictive Analytics. Seifert, M. (ed.). Springer

  Research output: Chapter or section in a book/report/conference proceeding › Chapter or section

• Judgmental Selection of Forecasting Models

  Petropoulos, F., Kourentzes, N., Nikolopoulos, K. & Siemsen, E., Nov 2022, (Acceptance date) Judgment in Predictive Analytics. Seifert, M. (ed.). Springer

  Research output: Chapter or section in a book/report/conference proceeding › Chapter or section

  Open Access

  File
  3 Downloads (Pure)

• Model combinations through revised base-rates

  Petropoulos, F., Spiliotis, E. & Panagiotelis, A., 24 Aug 2022, (E-pub ahead of print) In: International Journal of Forecasting.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  • ARMA Model 100%
  • Contingency Table 78%
  • Model Selection 74%
  • Statistical Model 68%
  • Exponential Smoothing 60%

• On the selection of forecasting accuracy measures

  Koutsandreas, D., Spiliotis, E., Petropoulos, F. & Assimakopoulos, V., 31 Dec 2022, In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 73, 5, p. 937-954 18 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Forecasting Accuracy 100%
  • Forecasting 99%
  • Loss Function 98%
  • Forecasting Method 95%
  • Point Forecasts 59%
  57 Downloads (Pure)

• Representativeness: A new criterion for selecting forecasts

  Petropoulos, F. & Siemsen, E., 31 Dec 2022, In: Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 2022, 65, p. 5-12 8 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  • Air 100%

• The effect of discount incentives on customers’ willingness to accept ‘no-rush' delivery

  Liu, Y., Giannikas, V. & Petropoulos, F., 13 Jul 2022, Proceedings of the 26th International Symposium on Logistics (ISL 2022): The Journey to Sustainable Supply Chains. A. P., Pawar, K., O’Reilly, S. & Jimo, A. (eds.). p. 66 1 p.

  Research output: Chapter or section in a book/report/conference proceeding › Chapter in a published conference proceeding

• The future of forecasting competitions: Design attributes and principles

  Makridakis, S., Fry, C., Petropoulos, F. & Spiliotis, E., 30 Apr 2022, In: INFORMS Journal on Data Science. 1, 1, p. 96-113 18 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Uncertainty 100%
  • Costs 60%
  2 Downloads (Pure)

• The M5 competition: Conclusions

  Makridakis, S., Petropoulos, F. & Spiliotis, E., 7 Oct 2022, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 38, 4, p. 1576-1582

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Editorial › peer-review

• The uncertainty estimation of feature-based forecast combinations

  Wang, X., Kang, Y., Petropoulos, F. & Li, F., 31 Dec 2022, In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 73, 5, p. 979-993 15 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Forecast Combination 100%
  • Uncertainty Estimation 83%
  • Forecast 59%
  • Time series 44%
  • Forecasting 38%
  3 Downloads (Pure)
• 2021

  Beyond Error Measures to the Utility And Cost of the Forecasts

  Yardley, L. & Petropoulos, F., 31 Dec 2021, In: Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 63, p. 36-45 10 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • forecast 100%
  • cost 73%
  • decision making 17%
  • evaluation 11%
  • method 10%
  112 Downloads (Pure)

• Déjà vu: A data-centric forecasting approach through time series cross-similarity

  Kang, Y., Spiliotis, E., Petropoulos, F., Athiniotis, N., Li, F. & Assimakopoulos, V., 31 Aug 2021, In: Journal of Business Research. 132, p. 719-731

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Statistical Model 100%
  • Self-similarity 53%
  • Prediction Interval 51%
  • Point Forecasts 48%
  • Model Uncertainty 42%
  2 Citations (SciVal)

  10 Downloads (Pure)

• Forecasting in social settings: the state of the art

  Makridakis, S., Hyndman, R. J. & Petropoulos, F., 31 Jul 2021, Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Gilliland, M., Tashman, L. & Sglavo, U. (eds.). Wiley, (Wiley and SAS Business Series).

  Research output: Chapter or section in a book/report/conference proceeding › Chapter or section

  File
  32 Downloads (Pure)

• Foreword

  Makridakis, S. & Petropoulos, F., May 2021, Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Gilliland, M., Tashman, L. & Sglavo, U. (eds.). Wiley, p. ix-xii (Wiley and SAS Business Series).

  Research output: Chapter or section in a book/report/conference proceeding › Foreword/postscript

• Hierarchical forecast reconciliation with machine learning

  Spiliotis, E., Abolghasemi, M., Hyndman, R. J., Petropoulos, F. & Assimakopoulos, V., 30 Nov 2021, In: Applied Soft Computing. 112, 107756.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Machine learning 100%
  • Tourism industry 51%
  • Decision making 24%
  • Industry 14%
  1 Citation (SciVal)

  2 Downloads (Pure)

• Judgmental model selection

  Petropoulos, F., May 2021, Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Gilliland, M., Tashman, L. & Sglavo, U. (eds.). Wiley, (Wiley and SAS Business Series).

  Research output: Chapter or section in a book/report/conference proceeding › Chapter or section

• The wisdom of the data: Getting the most out of univariate time-series forecasting

  Petropoulos, F. & Spiliotis, E., 23 Jun 2021, In: Forecasting. 3, 3, p. 478-497 10 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

• Understanding forecast reconciliation

  Hollyman, R., Petropoulos, F. & Tipping, M., 1 Oct 2021, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 294, 1, p. 149-160 12 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Reconciliation 100%
  • Forecast 80%
  • Time series 58%
  • Agglomeration 29%
  • Linear Constraints 13%
  3 Citations (SciVal)

  2 Downloads (Pure)
• 2020

  A Simple Combination of Univariate Models

  Petropoulos, F. & Svetunkov, I., 1 Jan 2020, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 36, 1, p. 110-115 6 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Point Forecasts 100%
  • Prediction Interval 78%
  • Exponential Smoothing 45%
  • Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average 23%
  • Median 17%
  15 Citations (SciVal)

  32 Downloads (Pure)

• Cross-temporal aggregation: Improving the forecast accuracy of hierarchical electricity consumption

  Spiliotis, E., Petropoulos, F., Kourentzes, N. & Assimakopoulos, V., 1 Mar 2020, In: Applied Energy. 261, 114339.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • electricity consumption 100%
  • Agglomeration 67%
  • Electricity 57%
  • forecast 55%
  • forecasting 40%
  17 Citations (SciVal)

  12 Downloads (Pure)

• Forecasting in social settings: the state of the art

  Makridakis, S., Hyndman, R. J. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Jan 2020, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 36, 1, p. 15-28 14 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  • Prediction 100%
  • Machine Learning 80%
  • Causal Inference 78%
  • Learning Methods 75%
  • Fat Tails 75%
  24 Citations (SciVal)

• Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19

  Petropoulos, F. & Makridakis, S., 31 Mar 2020, In: PLoS ONE. 15, 3, 8 p., e0231236.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • psychosocial factors 100%
  • Coronavirinae 88%
  • pandemic 86%
  • Coronavirus 84%
  • fearfulness 75%
  246 Citations (SciVal)

  106 Downloads (Pure)

• Forecasting week-ahead hourly electricity prices in Belgium with statistical and Machine Learning methods

  Spiliotis, E., Doukas, H., Assimakopoulos, V. & Petropoulos, F., 2020, (Acceptance date) Mathematical Modelling of Contemporary Electricity Markets: New challenges and methodologies. Dagoumas, A. A. (ed.). Elsevier, p. 89 109 p.

  Research output: Chapter or section in a book/report/conference proceeding › Chapter or section

  • machine learning 100%
  • electricity 87%
  • price 81%
  • forecasting 77%
  • forecast 42%

• Last-mile delivery and consumer behaviour in e-commerce: A systematic literature review

  Liu, Y., Giannikas, V., Petropoulos, F. & Lim, S. F. W. T., Sep 2020, p. 36-36. 1 p.

  Research output: Contribution to conference › Abstract › peer-review

  • Literature Review 100%
  • Consumer Behaviour 71%
  • Electronic Commerce 67%
  • Delivery Services 21%
  • Factors 20%

• The Impact of Imperfect Weather Forecasts on Wind Power Forecasting Performance: Evidence from Two Wind Farms in Greece

  Spiliotis, E., Petropoulos, F. & Nikolopoulos, K., 12 Apr 2020, In: Energies. 13, 8, p. 1-18 18 p., 1880.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Wind Power 100%
  • Greece 85%
  • Weather 74%
  • Forecast 64%
  • Forecasting 61%
  4 Citations (SciVal)

  18 Downloads (Pure)

• The M4 competition, and a look to the future

  Petropoulos, F., 25 Mar 2020, In: Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 57, p. 11-12 2 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Comment/debate › peer-review

  Open Access

  File
  34 Downloads (Pure)

• The M4 competition: Bigger. Stronger. Better.

  Petropoulos, F. & Makridakis, S., 1 Jan 2020, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 36, 1, p. 3-6 4 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Editorial › peer-review

  Open Access

  File
  4 Citations (SciVal)

  11 Downloads (Pure)

• The M4 competition: Conclusions

  Makridakis, S. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Jan 2020, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 36, 1, p. 224-227 4 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Editorial › peer-review

  Open Access

  File
  2 Citations (SciVal)

  90 Downloads (Pure)
• 2019

  Another look at forecast selection and combination: evidence from forecast pooling

  Kourentzes, N., Barrow, D. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Mar 2019, In: International Journal of Production Economics. 209, p. 226-235 10 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Pooling 100%
  • Uncertainty 57%
  • Uncertainty Modeling 16%
  • Forecast Combination 15%
  • Decision Modeling 15%
  27 Citations (SciVal)

  173 Downloads (Pure)

• Aprimorando previsoes de abastecimento de energia com algoritmos de bagging metodos de amortecimento exponencial

  de Oliveira, E. M., Cyrino Oliveira, F. L., Petropoulos, F. & Jeon, J., 2019, Li Simposio Brasileiro de Pesquisa Operacional. Limeira, Brazil

  Research output: Chapter or section in a book/report/conference proceeding › Chapter in a published conference proceeding

• Brain imaging and forecasting: Insights from judgmental model selection

  Han, W., Wang, X., Petropoulos, F. & Wang, J., 30 Sep 2019, In: Omega: The International Journal of Management Science. 87, p. 1-9 9 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Brain Imaging 100%
  • Model Selection 92%
  • Judgmental Forecasting 65%
  • Cognitive Load 60%
  • Forecasting Accuracy 23%
  5 Citations (SciVal)

  28 Downloads (Pure)

• Forecasting for food demand

  Petropoulos, F. & Carver, S., 2019, (Acceptance date) Sustainable Food Supply Chains. Accorsi, R. & Manzini, R. (eds.). Elsevier

  Research output: Chapter or section in a book/report/conference proceeding › Chapter or section

  File

  • Food supply 100%
  • Supply chains 64%
  • Sustainable development 57%
  • Decision making 47%
  146 Downloads (Pure)

• Improving the forecasting performance of temporal hierarchies

  Spiliotis, E., Petropoulos, F. & Assimakopoulos, V., 3 Oct 2019, In: PLoS ONE. 14, 10, 21 p., e0223422.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • shrinkage 100%
  • planning 95%
  • complement 85%
  • methodology 81%
  7 Citations (SciVal)

  71 Downloads (Pure)

• Judgmental model selection

  Petropoulos, F., 2019, In: Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 2019, 54, p. 4-10 7 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Model Selection 100%
  • Forecast Performance 42%
  • Forecast Accuracy 36%
  • Acceptance 26%
  85 Downloads (Pure)

• Probabilistic forecast reconciliation with applications to wind power and electric load

  Jeon, J., Panagiotelis, A. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Dec 2019, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 279, 2, p. 364-379 16 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Wind Power 100%
  • Reconciliation 79%
  • Electric loads 70%
  • Forecast 64%
  • Farms 52%
  16 Citations (SciVal)

  12 Downloads (Pure)

• Supporting national planning through improved forecasting of demand for health services

  Vasilakis, C., Petropoulos, F. & Cruze, V., 31 Dec 2019.

  Research output: Contribution to conference › Abstract › peer-review

• The inventory performance of forecasting methods: evidence from the M3-competition data

  Petropoulos, F., Wang, X. & Disney, S. M., 1 Jan 2019, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 35, 1, p. 251-265 15 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Forecasting Method 100%
  • Holt-Winters Method 38%
  • Forecasting Competitions 36%
  • Performance 34%
  • Order-up-to Policy 34%
  21 Citations (SciVal)

  20 Downloads (Pure)

• θ-Reflections from the Next Generation of Forecasters

  Petropoulos, F., 2019, (Acceptance date) Forecasting With The Theta Method: Theory and Applications. Nikolopoulos, K. & Thomakos, D. D. (eds.). Wiley, p. 163-176

  Research output: Chapter or section in a book/report/conference proceeding › Chapter or section

  File
  213 Downloads (Pure)
• 2018

  Exploring the sources of uncertainty: why does bagging for time series forecasting work?

  Petropoulos, F., Hyndman, R. J. & Bergmeir, C., 16 Jul 2018, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 268, 2, p. 545-554 10 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Bagging 100%
  • Time Series Forecasting 97%
  • Time series 53%
  • Uncertainty 52%
  • Exponential Smoothing 38%
  38 Citations (SciVal)

  218 Downloads (Pure)

• forecast: Forecasting functions for time series and linear models

  Hyndman, R. J., Athanasopoulos, G., Bergmeir, C., Caceres, G., Chhay, L., O'Hara-Wild, M., Petropoulos, F., Razbash, S., Wang, E. & Yasmeen, F., 11 Apr 2018

  Research output: Non-textual form › Software

• Forecasting for big data: does suboptimality matter?

  Nikolopoulos, K. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Oct 2018, In: Computers and Operations Research. 98, p. 322-329 8 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Forecasting 100%
  • Big Data 86%
  • Big data 78%
  • Fruit 66%
  • Set theory 56%
  15 Citations (SciVal)

  226 Downloads (Pure)

• Judgmental Selection of Forecasting Models

  Petropoulos, F., Kourentzes, N., Nikolopoulos, K. & Siemsen, E., 31 May 2018, In: Journal of Operations Management. 60, 1, p. 34-46 13 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Model Selection 100%
  • Seasonality 48%
  • Information Criterion 40%
  • Choice Sets 37%
  • Efficacy 31%
  42 Citations (SciVal)

  207 Downloads (Pure)

• Old dog, new tricks: a modelling view of simple moving averages

  Svetunkov, I. & Petropoulos, F., 2018, In: International Journal of Production Research. 56, 18, p. 6034-6047 14 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  • Moving Average 100%
  • Dog 82%
  • Statistical Model 81%
  • Forecasting Method 64%
  • Statistical Models 53%
  12 Citations (SciVal)