Fotios Petropoulos

Search results

• 2021

  Forecasting in social settings: the state of the art

  Makridakis, S., Hyndman, R. J. & Petropoulos, F., 31 Jul 2021, Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Gilliland, M., Tashman, L. & Sglavo, U. (eds.). Wiley, (Wiley and SAS Business Series).

  Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter

  File
  3 Downloads (Pure)

• Foreword

  Makridakis, S. & Petropoulos, F., May 2021, Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Gilliland, M., Tashman, L. & Sglavo, U. (eds.). Wiley, p. ix-xii (Wiley and SAS Business Series).

  Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Foreword/postscript

• Judgmental model selection

  Petropoulos, F., May 2021, Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Gilliland, M., Tashman, L. & Sglavo, U. (eds.). Wiley, (Wiley and SAS Business Series).

  Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter

• On the selection of forecasting accuracy measures

  Koutsandreas, D., Spiliotis, E., Petropoulos, F. & Assimakopoulos, V., 10 Feb 2021, (Acceptance date) In: Journal of the Operational Research Society.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

• The uncertainty estimation of feature-based forecast combinations

  Wang, X., Kang, Y., Petropoulos, F. & Li, F., 18 Jan 2021, (Acceptance date) In: Journal of the Operational Research Society.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

• Understanding forecast reconciliation

  Hollyman, R., Petropoulos, F. & Tipping, M., 14 Jan 2021, In: European Journal of Operational Research.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
• 2020

  A disaster response model driven by spatial-temporal forecasts

  Nikolopoulos, K., Petropoulos, F., Sanchez Rodrigues, V., Pettit, S. & Beresford, A., 14 Feb 2020, In: International Journal of Forecasting.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Disaster Response
  • Time Windows
  • Preparedness
  • Earthquake
  • Forecasting Method
  1 Citation (Scopus)

  4 Downloads (Pure)

• A Simple Combination of Univariate Models

  Petropoulos, F. & Svetunkov, I., 1 Jan 2020, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 36, 1, p. 110-115 6 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Point Forecasts
  • Prediction Interval
  • Exponential Smoothing
  • Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
  • Median
  10 Citations (Scopus)

• COVID-19: Forecasting confirmed cases and deaths with a simple time-series model

  Petropoulos, F., Makridakis, S. & Stylianou, N., 4 Dec 2020, In: International Journal of Forecasting.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
  1 Citation (Scopus)

• Cross-temporal aggregation: Improving the forecast accuracy of hierarchical electricity consumption

  Spiliotis, E., Petropoulos, F., Kourentzes, N. & Assimakopoulos, V., 1 Mar 2020, In: Applied Energy. 261, 114339.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • electricity consumption
  • Agglomeration
  • Electricity
  • forecast
  • forecasting
  10 Citations (Scopus)

  8 Downloads (Pure)

• Déjà vu: A data-centric forecasting approach through time series cross-similarity

  Kang, Y., Spiliotis, E., Petropoulos, F., Athiniotis, N., Li, F. & Assimakopoulos, V., 23 Oct 2020, In: Journal of Business Research.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File
  7 Downloads (Pure)

• Forecasting in social settings: the state of the art

  Makridakis, S., Hyndman, R. J. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Jan 2020, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 36, 1, p. 15-28 14 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  • Causal Inference
  • Prediction
  • Learning Methods
  • Luck
  • Time Series Forecasting
  21 Citations (Scopus)

• Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19

  Petropoulos, F. & Makridakis, S., 31 Mar 2020, In: PLoS ONE. 15, 3, 8 p., e0231236.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • psychosocial factors
  • Coronavirinae
  • pandemic
  • Coronavirus
  • fearfulness
  138 Citations (Scopus)

  111 Downloads (Pure)

• Forecasting week-ahead hourly electricity prices in Belgium with statistical and Machine Learning methods

  Spiliotis, E., Doukas, H., Assimakopoulos, V. & Petropoulos, F., 2020, (Acceptance date) Mathematical Modelling of Contemporary Electricity Markets: New challenges and methodologies. Dagoumas, A. A. (ed.). Elsevier, p. 89 109 p.

  Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter

  • machine learning
  • electricity
  • forecasting
  • forecast
  • energy market

• Last-mile delivery and consumer behaviour in e-commerce: A systematic literature review

  Liu, Y., Giannikas, V., Petropoulos, F. & Lim, S. F. W. T., Sep 2020, p. 36-36. 1 p.

  Research output: Contribution to conference › Abstract › peer-review

  • Consumer Behaviour
  • Electronic Commerce
  • Literature Review
  • Delivery Services
  • Factors

• The Impact of Imperfect Weather Forecasts on Wind Power Forecasting Performance: Evidence from Two Wind Farms in Greece

  Spiliotis, E., Petropoulos, F. & Nikolopoulos, K., 12 Apr 2020, In: Energies. 13, 8, p. 1-18 18 p., 1880.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Wind Power
  • Greece
  • Weather
  • Forecast
  • Forecasting
  1 Citation (Scopus)

  20 Downloads (Pure)

• The M4 competition, and a look to the future

  Petropoulos, F., 25 Mar 2020, In: Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 57, p. 11-12 2 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Comment/debate › peer-review

  Open Access

  File
  23 Downloads (Pure)

• The M4 competition: Conclusions

  Makridakis, S. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Jan 2020, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 36, 1, p. 224-227 4 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Editorial › peer-review
  2 Citations (Scopus)

• The M4 competition: Bigger. Stronger. Better.

  Petropoulos, F. & Makridakis, S., 1 Jan 2020, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 36, 1, p. 3-6 4 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Editorial › peer-review
  4 Citations (Scopus)
• 2019

  Another look at forecast selection and combination: evidence from forecast pooling

  Kourentzes, N., Barrow, D. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Mar 2019, In: International Journal of Production Economics. 209, p. 226-235 10 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Pooling
  • Uncertainty
  • Uncertainty Modeling
  • Forecast Combination
  • Decision Modeling
  22 Citations (Scopus)

  148 Downloads (Pure)

• Brain imaging and forecasting: Insights from judgmental model selection

  Han, W., Wang, X., Petropoulos, F. & Wang, J., 30 Sep 2019, In: Omega: The International Journal of Management Science. 87, p. 1-9 9 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Brain Imaging
  • Model Selection
  • Judgmental Forecasting
  • Cognitive Load
  • Laboratory Experiments
  5 Citations (Scopus)

  21 Downloads (Pure)

• Forecasting for food demand

  Petropoulos, F. & Carver, S., 2019, (Acceptance date) Sustainable Food Supply Chains. Accorsi, R. & Manzini, R. (eds.). Elsevier

  Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter

  File

  • Food supply
  • Supply chains
  • Sustainable development
  • Decision making
  107 Downloads (Pure)

• Improving the forecasting performance of temporal hierarchies

  Spiliotis, E., Petropoulos, F. & Assimakopoulos, V., 3 Oct 2019, In: PLoS ONE. 14, 10, 21 p., e0223422.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Planning
  • shrinkage
  • planning
  • complement
  • methodology
  2 Citations (Scopus)

  48 Downloads (Pure)

• Judgmental model selection

  Petropoulos, F., 2019, In: Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 2019, 54, p. 4-10 7 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Model Selection
  • Forecast Performance
  • Forecast Accuracy
  • Acceptance
  69 Downloads (Pure)

• Probabilistic forecast reconciliation with applications to wind power and electric load

  Jeon, J., Panagiotelis, A. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Dec 2019, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 279, 2, p. 364-379 16 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  • Wind Power
  • Reconciliation
  • Electric loads
  • Forecast
  • Farms
  12 Citations (Scopus)

• Supporting national planning through improved forecasting of demand for health services

  Vasilakis, C., Petropoulos, F. & Cruze, V., Apr 2019, (Acceptance date).

  Research output: Contribution to conference › Abstract › peer-review

• The inventory performance of forecasting methods: evidence from the M3-competition data

  Petropoulos, F., Wang, X. & Disney, S. M., 1 Jan 2019, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 35, 1, p. 251-265 15 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Forecasting Method
  • Holt-Winters Method
  • Forecasting Competitions
  • Performance
  • Order-up-to Policy
  17 Citations (Scopus)

  19 Downloads (Pure)

• θ-Reflections from the Next Generation of Forecasters

  Petropoulos, F., 2019, (Acceptance date) Forecasting With The Theta Method: Theory and Applications. Nikolopoulos, K. & Thomakos, D. D. (eds.). Wiley, p. 163-176

  Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter

  File
  172 Downloads (Pure)
• 2018

  Exploring the sources of uncertainty: why does bagging for time series forecasting work?

  Petropoulos, F., Hyndman, R. J. & Bergmeir, C., 16 Jul 2018, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 268, 2, p. 545-554 10 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Bagging
  • Time Series Forecasting
  • Time series
  • Uncertainty
  • Exponential Smoothing
  26 Citations (Scopus)

  93 Downloads (Pure)

• forecast: Forecasting functions for time series and linear models

  Hyndman, R. J., Athanasopoulos, G., Bergmeir, C., Caceres, G., Chhay, L., O'Hara-Wild, M., Petropoulos, F., Razbash, S., Wang, E. & Yasmeen, F., 11 Apr 2018

  Research output: Non-textual form › Software

• Forecasting for big data: does suboptimality matter?

  Nikolopoulos, K. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Oct 2018, In: Computers and Operations Research. 98, p. 322-329 8 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Forecasting
  • Big Data
  • Big data
  • Fruit
  • Set theory
  16 Citations (Scopus)

  182 Downloads (Pure)

• Judgmental Selection of Forecasting Models

  Petropoulos, F., Kourentzes, N., Nikolopoulos, K. & Siemsen, E., 31 May 2018, In: Journal of Operations Management. 60, 1, p. 34-46 13 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Model Selection
  • Seasonality
  • Information Criterion
  • Choice Sets
  • Efficacy
  35 Citations (Scopus)

  122 Downloads (Pure)

• Old dog, new tricks: a modelling view of simple moving averages

  Svetunkov, I. & Petropoulos, F., 2018, In: International Journal of Production Research. 56, 18, p. 6034-6047 14 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  • Dog
  • Moving Average
  • Statistical Model
  • Modeling
  • Forecasting Method
  8 Citations (Scopus)

• On reconciling macro and micro energy transport forecasts for strategic decision making in the tanker industry

  Abouarghoub, W., Nomikos, N. & Petropoulos, F., 1 May 2018, In: Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review. 113, p. 225-238 14 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • shipping
  • Strategic Decision Making
  • Freight
  • Macros
  • Energy
  5 Citations (Scopus)

  51 Downloads (Pure)

• "Profit from Your Forecasting Software: A Best-Practice Guide for Sales Forecasters" by Paul Goodwin

  Petropoulos, F., 2018, Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 51, p. 5-7 3 p.

  Research output: Contribution to specialist publication › Book/Film/Article review
• 2017

  A note on upper bounds for forecast-value-added relative to naive forecasts

  Goodwin, P., Petropoulos, F. & Hyndman, R. J., Sep 2017, In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 68, 9, p. 1082-1084

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Forecast
  • Upper Bound
  • Value Added
  • Forecasting
  • Forecasting Method
  2 Citations (Scopus)

  209 Downloads (Pure)

• Forecasting methods tutorial: The Theta Method

  Petropoulos, F. & Nikolopoulos, K., 2017, In: Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 45, p. 11-17

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

• Forecasting with Temporal Hierarchies

  Athanasopoulos, G., Hyndman, R. J., Kourentzes, N. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Oct 2017, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 262, 1, p. 60-74 15 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Forecast
  • Forecasting
  • Hierarchy
  • Uncertainty Modeling
  • Strategic Planning
  68 Citations (Scopus)

  176 Downloads (Pure)

• Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge

  Petropoulos, F., Goodwin, P. & Fildes, R., Jan 2017, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 33, 1, p. 314-324 11 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Knowledge Elicitation
  • Expert Knowledge
  • Performance Feedback
  • Systems Software
  • Forecast Error
  8 Citations (Scopus)

  160 Downloads (Pure)
• 2016

  Academia versus Practice: Two sides of the same coin

  Petropoulos, F. & Kourentzes, N., 2016, In: Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 42, p. 37-39

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Comment/debate › peer-review

• Another look at estimators for intermittent demand

  Petropoulos, F., Kourentzes, N. & Nikolopoulos, K., Nov 2016, In: International Journal of Production Economics. 181, Part A, p. 154-161

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File
  16 Citations (Scopus)

  168 Downloads (Pure)

• Do 'big losses' in judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts affect experts' behaviour

  Petropoulos, F., Fildes, R. & Goodwin, P., 16 Mar 2016, In: European Journal of Operational Research. 249, 3, p. 842-852 11 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  • Forecast
  • Adjustment
  • Forecasting
  • Forecasting Support System
  • Overshooting
  21 Citations (Scopus)

  65 Downloads (Pure)

• Forecasting with multivariate temporal aggregation: the case of promotional modelling

  Kourentzes, N. & Petropoulos, F., 1 Nov 2016, In: International Journal of Production Economics. 181, Part A, p. 145-153 9 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  • Temporal Aggregation
  • Agglomeration
  • Modeling
  • Exponential Smoothing
  • Prediction
  43 Citations (Scopus)

  90 Downloads (Pure)

• Misbehaving, misdesigning and miscommunicating

  Nikolopoulos, K. & Petropoulos, F., 2016, In: Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 41, p. 18-19

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Comment/debate › peer-review

• Models for optimising the theta method and their relationship to state space models

  Fioruci, J. A., Pellegrini, T. R., Louzada, F., Petropoulos, F. & Koehler, A. B., Oct 2016, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 32, 4, p. 1151-1161 11 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File
  18 Citations (Scopus)

  326 Downloads (Pure)

• Predicting the improbable

  Nikolopoulos, K. & Petropoulos, F., 2016, In: Chartered Banker. December 2016/January 2017, p. 44-45

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Comment/debate

• To select or to combine? The inventory performance of model and expert forecasts

  Wang, X. & Petropoulos, F., 2016, In: International Journal of Production Research. 54, 17, p. 5271-5282 12 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File
  18 Citations (Scopus)

  167 Downloads (Pure)
• 2015

  Amplifying the learning effect via a Forecasting and Foresight Support System

  Spithourakis, G., Petropoulos, F., Nikolopoulos, K. & Assimakopoulos, V., 2015, In: International Journal of Forecasting. 31, 1, p. 20-32 13 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File
  8 Citations (Scopus)

  146 Downloads (Pure)

• Forecasting Support Systems: ways forward

  Petropoulos, F., 2015, In: Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 39, p. 5-11

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

• Forecasts combinations for intermittent demand

  Petropoulos, F. & Kourentzes, N., 2015, In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 66, 6, p. 914-924 11 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Forecast Combination
  • Intermittent Demand
  • Demand
  • Combination of Forecasts
  • Forecasting
  42 Citations (Scopus)

  152 Downloads (Pure)